Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

748
AXNT20 KNHC 311105
TWDAT 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Oct 31 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
W Africa near 12N16W, and continues southwestward to 08N22W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to 06N40W and 
to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of
the the trough between 20W and 25W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the southeastern
United States and relatively lower pressure to its south is
supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate
seas across the northeast and north-central Gulf. Moderate seas
are with these winds. Overnight Ascat scatterometer data passes 
and recent buoy observations show light to gentle winds elsewhere.
Slight seas are elsewhere as well. The Ascat scatterometer data 
passes suggest that a trough is along the position from 24N96W to 
20N91W. An upper-level shortwave trough acting on present ample 
moisture has triggered off scattered moderate convection offshore 
Louisiana and northeastern Texas, north of about 26N and west of 
90W.
For the forecast, the moderate to fresh northeast to east winds 
and moderate seas across the northeast and north-central Gulf
will increase to fresh to strong speeds late tonight and continue 
into Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to enter the NW
Gulf Tue night, and move slowly southeastward reaching the east- 
central Gulf by Wed night, followed by mostly fresh northwest to 
north winds. 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between higher pressure over the Gulf of
America and the western Atlantic, and lower pressure over 
Colombia supports fresh to strong trades along with seas of 
7 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia. 
Moderate to fresh trades and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail across the 
remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight seas are elsewhere. Otherwise, a trough that is 
analyzed from 19N80W to 14N82W and to just north of northern 
Panama is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms south of 
14N between 79W and the coast of Central America. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 14N to 19N between 78W
and 82W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 13N 
between 72W and 79W, over the eastern Caribbean from 14N to 16N
between 62W and 67W, and also south of 17N between 67W and 72W.
For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trades over the central 
and eastern Caribbean will continue through Mon, with small areas of 
strong winds near the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela. Winds 
and seas are expected to diminish basin-wide late Mon through Wed 
as broad low pressure develops across the Atlantic well to the NE 
of the Bahamas. 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A frontal boundary extends from 31N58W to 28N62W and to near 
24N71W while high pressure to its northwest builds southward 
across the western Atlantic. A warm front is analyzed from 
31N51W to 24N47W. A trough is ahead of the frontal boundary from
31N56W to 29N59W. Increasing scattered to numerous moderate 
convection is ahead of the boundary reaching to a line from 
31N53W to 25N62W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are ahead of the
frontal boundary to near 45W and north of 29N. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are 
with these winds as noted by Sofar Ocean Spotter buoys in the area. 
Moderate to fresh north-northeast winds are northwest of the front, 
except for fresh to strong northwest to north of 30N between the 
front and 63W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft northwest of the front, except for 
higher seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 30N between the front and 63W. 
Over the far eastern part of the basin, a cold front extends from a 
1012 mb low that is near 32N24W, south-southwestward to 28N23W and 
to near 23N341W, where it becomes stationary to 22N41W, and 
dissipating stationary from there to 22N45W. Fresh to near gale 
north to northeast winds are west of the front to near 39W and north 
of 23N. Seas are 7 to 11 ft with these winds as noted by Sofar Ocean 
Spotter buoys in this area. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
within 180 nm east of the front north of 26N, and within 60 nm west 
of the frontal boundary north of 27N. High pressure is elsewhere 
north of about 19N and east of 55W. For the forecast west of 55W, 
the tightening gradient between the boundary and the high pressure 
will lead to fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with 
rough seas, possibly as high as 12 ft, over the waters primarily 
north and northeast of the Bahamas into the early part of the 
upcoming week. The western Atlantic building high pressure will 
nudge the frontal boundary southeastward stalling near 25N Sun and 
weakening through Wed.