594 
AXNT20 KNHC 252318 
TWDAT 
 
Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
0630 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020 
 
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. 
 
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2215 UTC. 
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 
 
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra 
Leone near 05N09W to 02N19W, where it transitions to ITCZ. ITCZ 
continues from that point to 01S36W and ends near the coast of 
Brazil, 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection along the monsoon 
trough is from 01N-05N and east of 19W and along the ITCZ from 
02S-02N between 29W-49W. 
 
GULF OF MEXICO... 
 
An upper level anticyclonic circulation center in the SW corner 
of the Gulf of Mexico is providing broad anticyclonic wind flow 
aloft and stable weather conditions across the entire Gulf of 
Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean, across 
southern Florida, to the central Gulf of Mexico. Moderate SE 
winds are just off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, 
while light winds prevail across the northwest and southeast 
portion of the Gulf. 
 
Broken to overcast low level clouds have burned off across the 
Texas and Louisiana coastal waters west of 87W. Observations 
showed visibilities improving across the waters. 
 
High pressure will prevail through early Thu. A weak frontal 
trough will sink S into the NE Gulf coastal waters Thu morning 
before dissipating Thu night. High pressure will then build 
across the NE Gulf Fri through Sat. A cold front will move into 
the western Gulf Sat night, with a modest increase in winds and 
seas expected behind the front. The front will stall and 
dissipate over the northern Gulf Sun. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA... 
 
A middle to upper level trough across the central and eastern 
Caribbean continue to support a surface trough with axis near 
the Mona Passage. With the upper atmospheric conditions in place 
and shallow moisture moving across this region, scattered to 
isolated showers are likely for portions of Puerto Rico, the 
Dominican Republic and adjacent waters to 14N. The trough will 
continue to move westward and reach the Windward Passage by Thu 
morning where it will dissipate. Fair weather is across the 
western half of the Caribbean under the influence of ridging 
aloft and deep layered dry air. Except for the south-central 
Caribbean gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere and will 
prevail through Fri night. High pressure will build over the SW 
N Atlc waters over the remainder weekend, which will lead to 
fresh to locally strong winds over the central Caribbean and 
moderate to fresh trades over the eastern forecast waters. 
 
High pressure across the W Atlc will maintain fresh to strong 
trades over the south-central Caribbean with minimal gale force 
winds possible Fri night, Sat night, and Sun night. Otherwise, 
fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night in the Gulf 
of Honduras. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN... 
 
A pre-frontal trough ahead of a low pressure system east of the 
Carolinas is supporting fresh to strong southwesterly winds 
north of 28N between 70W and 80W. Scattered showers and tstms 
associated with the trough are N of 30N between 72W and 75W. 
Over the northeastern Atlc, a stationary front extends from 
30N28W to 27N36W to 29N41W with isolated showers within 105 nm 
ahead of it. The front will dissipate by Thu morning. However, 
seas to 11 ft in NE swell associated with the front will 
gradually subside through Fri. A surface trough ahead of the 
front and just W of the Canary Islands is supporting isolated 
showers N of 28N. The remainder of the north-central Atlc is 
under the influence of a surface ridge and generally fair 
weather. 
 
A cold front will move across the SW N Atlc waters north of 22N 
late tonight through Fri night. Associated northerly swell will 
propagate across the northern waters Thu night through Fri 
night. High pressure will build across the northern waters in 
the wake of the front late Fri and prevail through Sun. 
Otherwise, a cold front will move into the northern waters Mon.