594 AXNT20 KNHC 252318 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0630 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2215 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 05N09W to 02N19W, where it transitions to ITCZ. ITCZ continues from that point to 01S36W and ends near the coast of Brazil, 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection along the monsoon trough is from 01N-05N and east of 19W and along the ITCZ from 02S-02N between 29W-49W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level anticyclonic circulation center in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico is providing broad anticyclonic wind flow aloft and stable weather conditions across the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean, across southern Florida, to the central Gulf of Mexico. Moderate SE winds are just off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, while light winds prevail across the northwest and southeast portion of the Gulf. Broken to overcast low level clouds have burned off across the Texas and Louisiana coastal waters west of 87W. Observations showed visibilities improving across the waters. High pressure will prevail through early Thu. A weak frontal trough will sink S into the NE Gulf coastal waters Thu morning before dissipating Thu night. High pressure will then build across the NE Gulf Fri through Sat. A cold front will move into the western Gulf Sat night, with a modest increase in winds and seas expected behind the front. The front will stall and dissipate over the northern Gulf Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level trough across the central and eastern Caribbean continue to support a surface trough with axis near the Mona Passage. With the upper atmospheric conditions in place and shallow moisture moving across this region, scattered to isolated showers are likely for portions of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and adjacent waters to 14N. The trough will continue to move westward and reach the Windward Passage by Thu morning where it will dissipate. Fair weather is across the western half of the Caribbean under the influence of ridging aloft and deep layered dry air. Except for the south-central Caribbean gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere and will prevail through Fri night. High pressure will build over the SW N Atlc waters over the remainder weekend, which will lead to fresh to locally strong winds over the central Caribbean and moderate to fresh trades over the eastern forecast waters. High pressure across the W Atlc will maintain fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean with minimal gale force winds possible Fri night, Sat night, and Sun night. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pre-frontal trough ahead of a low pressure system east of the Carolinas is supporting fresh to strong southwesterly winds north of 28N between 70W and 80W. Scattered showers and tstms associated with the trough are N of 30N between 72W and 75W. Over the northeastern Atlc, a stationary front extends from 30N28W to 27N36W to 29N41W with isolated showers within 105 nm ahead of it. The front will dissipate by Thu morning. However, seas to 11 ft in NE swell associated with the front will gradually subside through Fri. A surface trough ahead of the front and just W of the Canary Islands is supporting isolated showers N of 28N. The remainder of the north-central Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge and generally fair weather. A cold front will move across the SW N Atlc waters north of 22N late tonight through Fri night. Associated northerly swell will propagate across the northern waters Thu night through Fri night. High pressure will build across the northern waters in the wake of the front late Fri and prevail through Sun. Otherwise, a cold front will move into the northern waters Mon.