Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
629 AXNT20 KNHC 142328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Nov 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 07.5N17.5W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N17.5W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 20W and 37W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from south Florida through the central Gulf into south Texas. Farther south, a 1013 mb low is centered in the Bay of Campeche, and a trough extends eastward into the Yucatan Peninsula. Earlier scatterometer satellite imagery indicated that moderate to locally fresh NE to SE winds were occurring across the basin, with locally strong E winds noted offshore of southeastern Texas. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted via buoy data across much of the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure building southward toward the basin will lead to increasing NE to E winds over the northern Gulf. Low pressure may develop over the west-central or NW Gulf Sun, and enhance winds to near gale-force over portions of the NW and north-central basin through Mon. Strong to near gale-force N winds will also funnel down the NE coast of Mexico, including offshore Veracruz, for the start of next week. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are then likely to continue across the NE Gulf into the middle of next week as a tight pressure gradient prevails. Rough seas will build in association with these strong winds, and may impact portions of the northern and western basin well into next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are occurring across the eastern Caribbean, generally east of 70W, as a tight pressure gradient prevails between low pressure over northern Colombia and a stationary front over the NW Caribbean Sea. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted via buoy data in this region. The stationary front extends from central Cuba westward toward the Yucatan Strait, and moderate NE winds are occurring near this feature. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trades over the southeastern Caribbean today will transition to the south-central basin Sun, then increase in speed starting Mon. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will prevail over the northwestern Caribbean into Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N62W southwestward to central Cuba, and a pre-frontal trough is noted to the east, where it is producing scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas are noted N of 24N E of the front to 55W. A secondary front extends from 31N68W to deep south Florida. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas prevail west of this front. Elsewhere W of 65W, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted. The remainder of the waters N of 10N are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 30N29W. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are found N of 25N and E of 43W. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N62W to Cuba will be reinforced by a secondary front tonight, then reach from near 31N57W to just north of Hispaniola Sat. N of 25N, expect strong SW winds and scattered thunderstorms ahead of the front, with strong W to NW winds behind it. By Mon, the front will begin to weaken over SE portions of the waters. High pressure building southward toward the region will lead to a tightening pressure gradient and increasing NE to E winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas Mon, and these winds and associated rough seas will expand in area, especially northward and eastward, through the middle of next week.