Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

147
AXPZ20 KNHC 140936
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Nov 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Significant NW Swell Event: A series of NW swell sets will 
continue to impact the waters N of about 10N for the next 
several days associated with the passage of several cold fronts. 
Currently, a cold front extends from 31N121W SW to 27N130W to 
26N140W. Ahead of the front, and extending as far south of 07N 
and W of 112W, rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in decaying NW swell 
associated with a former front is ongoing. The period of this 
swell is 8 to 12 seconds. Behind the front, a reinforcing and 
larger set of NW swell with 13 to 22 seconds period, continues to
spread across the northern waters with peak seas around 22 ft 
near 29N133W. By this evening, the front is forecast to reach 
Baja California Norte N of Punta Eugenia to 24N130W while 
weakening, with rough seas of 12 to 21 ft spreading as far south
as 17N, and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft to 07N. These high energy 
waves will have a period of 13 to 18 seconds. These seas will 
keep spreading SE as yet another set with seas of 12 ft or 
greater arrives to near 30N140W by late tonight into early Sun, 
spreading across the majority of the waters into early next week.
Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/HSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 08N78W westward
to 07N90W to 08N100W, then resumes near 09N110W to 09N124W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N124W and beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is between the coasts of W Colombia 
and Ecuador to 94W. Similar convection extends from 05N to 10N W
of 135W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 03S to 
12N between 98W and 120W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to strong north winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
supported by the resultant pressure gradient between a high 
pressure system over central United States extending a ridge to
the northern Gulf of America, and lower pressure associated to 
the monsoon trough south of the area. Seas over these waters are
5 to 7 ft. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between a cold front
approaching Baja California Norte from the NW and high pressure
over New Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and
rough seas of 8 to 12 ft with a period of 8 to 12 seconds in NW
swell across the Baja California offshore waters. A pre-frontal
trough over the northern Gulf of California supports fresh SW 
winds with seas to 5 ft, and moderate or weakwer winds with seas 
to 3 ft elsewhere along the remainder Gulf. A weak pressure 
gradient present across the remainder of the Mexican offshore 
waters is generally allowing for mainly light to gentle winds and
slightly lower seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell.
For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas
around 8 ft will diminish over the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this
morning. The next Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to 
begin by Mon evening, and continue through much of the next week.
Winds there may reach gale-force starting late Tue and possibly 
continue through most of the period through Thu evening. Fresh 
NW winds W of Baja California N of Punta Eugenia will diminish to
gentle to moderate speeds later this morning. Very rough seas 
from an expansive set of NW swell over these waters will peak to 
around 20 ft tonight before gradually subsiding afterward. Another
rather expansive set of NW swell expected today should build 
seas to around 19 ft over the outer offshore waters of Baja 
California Norte. Rough seas will reach all the way to past 100W,
while additional and reinforcing NW swell sets continue to 
arrive.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A weakened pressure gradient is generally providing for light 
to gentle winds over the Central American offshore waters. 
Slight to moderate seas are over these waters in mixed SW and NW
swell with a period of 3 to 6 seconds. Higher winds and seas are
likely ongoing between the coasts of Colombia and Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands due to clusters of moderate to strong 
convection over that region. 
For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are 
forecast to return to the Papagayo region by late tonight, reach
strong speeds by Mon night, and continue through Thu. Moderate N
winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama early next week. 
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in merging 
SW and NW swell will remain through the next few days. Looking 
ahead, a set of NW swell may build seas to 8 ft or greater SSW of
the Galapagos Islands by the middle of next week. 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a series of significant NW swell sets which will impact much of
the open waters.
A cold front extends from 31N121W SW to 27N130W to 26N140W. 
Ahead of the front, and extending as far south of 07N and W of 
112W, rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in decaying NW swell associated 
with a former front is ongoing. The period of this swell is 8 to 
12 seconds. Behind the front, a reinforcing and larger set of NW 
swell with 13 to 22 seconds period, continues to spread across 
the northern waters with peak seas around 22 ft near 29N133W. 
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are over the waters from 10N to 
20N west of 120W with 8 to 11 ft seas in long-period NW swell. 
Merging southwest and northwest swell supports combined seas of 7
to 9 ft over the waters S of 01N between 99W and 112W. 
Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle and seas moderate.
For the forecast, the cold front will move across the northwest 
and north-central waters through Sun bringing an even larger 
reinforcing NW swell set, possibly reaching 23 ft along 30N. 
This set of swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the 
waters north of 05N and west of 110W by late tonight, then 
covering all of the waters west of 105W. Yet another set of large
swell will arrive Sun, with seas of 8 ft or greater across the 
entire waters W of 105W by late Sun night, then across the waters
west of 95W by Tue evening. Meanwhile, the mixed swell over the 
equatorial waters will diminish later this morning. Looking 
ahead, another cold front may move into the NW waters by the end
of the weekend and into early next week bringing a large area of
fresh to strong winds behind it as high pressure builds in 
behind the front. An additional pulse of large NW swell will be 
following in behind this front.