Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
029 AXNT20 KNHC 140828 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Nov 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N67W to the Florida Straits. Gale force winds and rough seas prevail N of 29N within 150 nm east of the front. These gales will be short- lived, with winds diminishing below gale force this afternoon. Thereafter, strong winds will prevail ahead of the front into Sun morning, when the front will reach from near 31N55W to near the Windward Passage. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12.5N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 06N40W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 20W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail east of 90W. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 90W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail today as high pressure builds southward toward the region. These winds will strengthen tonight into Sun over the northern Gulf ahead of a cold front that will move offshore Texas Sun night into Mon. Near gale- force winds are likely in the far northern Gulf ahead of this cold front early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail over the waters east of 70W. A trough extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras, with gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas west of the trough. Light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate seas, are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades over the eastern Caribbean will diminish today. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will prevail behind a surface trough over the northwestern Caribbean through Sun night. Trade winds are likely strengthen again over the south central Caribbean starting Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on gale conditions east of a cold front. A cold front extends from 31N67W to the Florida Straits. Numerous thunderstorms are within 210 nm east of the front. Aside from the gale force winds, strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas are noted N of 24N E of the front to 59W. A reinforcing front is from 31N76W to S Florida. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas prevail west of this front. Elsewhere W of 59W, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted. The remainder of the waters N of 15N are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 32N30W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are found N of 25N and E of 42W. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, in addition to the aforementioned gale-force winds and accompanying rough seas, strong winds will prevail ahead of the front into Sun morning, when the front will reach from near 31N55W to near the Windward Passage. The boundary should then stall and weaken into early next week. The pressure gradient between the front and building Bermuda high will tigthen, leading to increasing NE winds S of 27N and W of 65W Mon, and these strong winds will expand northward Tue and Tue night.