Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

881
AXNT20 KNHC 132234
TWDAT 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Nov 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
North-Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends
from near 31N71W to the northern Bahamas and to South Florida. 
Strong southwest winds are ahead of the front while fresh 
northwest winds are behind it. The front is expected to reach 
from near 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas by Sat morning, and 
from near 31N55W to near the Windward Passage by Sun morning. 
Gale-force southwest winds will develop late tonight into Sat 
morning ahead of the front north of 29N. These gale winds are 
expected to be short-lived as latest forecast has them ending at 
15Z. Seas with these winds are forecast to build to around 13 ft 
on Sat. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis exits the coast of Africa near 12N17W,
and continues southwestward to 09N20W, where it transitions to 
the ITCZ to 07N30W to 06N40W and to near 05N50W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between
24W-29W, between 31W-35W and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ
between 40W-45W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front is analyzed from the Florida Keys to offshore 
Veracruz, Mexico. Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight 
to moderate seas are north of the front. Locally fresh winds and 
moderate seas are off Veracruz in the far southwest Gulf. Light 
to gentle winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere. 
For the forecast, the cold front will exit the basin tonight. 
Moderate to fresh north winds will veer easterly into Sat as 
high pressure builds southward toward the region in the wake of 
the front. These easterly winds will increase Sat night into 
Sun, to strong over the northern Gulf ahead of the next cold 
front that will move offshore Texas Sun night into Mon. Near 
gale-force winds are likely in the far northern Gulf ahead of 
this cold front early next week. 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Fresh to strong winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the waters
east of 76W. Light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate seas, 
are noted elsewhere. A surface trough extends from central Cuba 
to the Gulf of Honduras. Numerous moderate and scattered strong 
convection is depicted along and east of the trough, also 
impacting portions of central and eastern Cuba, and Jamaica. 
For the forecast, fresh to strong trades over the eastern 
Caribbean will diminish Sat. A cold front will enter the NW 
waters this evening. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds 
are expected behind this front over the northwestern Caribbean 
Sat through Sun night. Trade winds are likely strengthen again 
over the south central Caribbean starting Mon. 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for information on
upcoming gale conditions east of a cold front. 
A strong cold front extends from near 31N75W to the northern 
Bahamas and to South Florida. Strong southwest winds are ahead of
the front impacting the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba while
fresh northwest winds are behind it. Seas ahead of the front are
7 to 11 ft and 5 to 7 ft behind it. A pre- frontal trough is 
analyzed from near 31N67W to 27N75W to west- central Cuba. To 
its NW, a very active subtropical jet stream rounds the base of a
deepening broad upper-level trough. A series of upper 
disturbances are riding along the jet stream branch and combining 
with trough, which is resulting in numerous large clusters of 
numerous moderate to strong convection east of the trough to near
60W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 24N to 30N 
between 54W and 60W. Over the central Atlantic, a trough is along
48W from 17N to 25N. No significant convection is occurring with
this feature. A 1024 mb high center is north of the area at 
34N35W, with a broad ridge stretching southwestward to the 
eastern portion of the Dominican Republic. Light to gentle winds
are roughly over the waters north of about 24N between 35W and a
line from 31N45W to 24N59W. Latest Ascat scatterometer data 
indicates a swath of fresh trades from 17N to 24N east of 50W, 
and also south of 15N east of the Windward Islands. Seas over 
these waters are 5 to 7 ft in wind generated wave, with northeast
swell merging with east to southeast swell. The latest Ascat 
scatterometer data also indicates gentle to moderate winds over 
the remainder of the discussion waters along with mostly moderate
seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front is 
expected to reach from near 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas
by Sat morning, and from near 31N55W to near the Windward 
Passage by Sun morning. The frontal boundary should then stall 
and weaken into early next week. The pressure gradient between 
the front and building Bermuda high pressure will tighten 
leading to increasing NE winds S of 27N and W of 65W Mon, and 
these strong winds will expand northward Tue and Tue night.