Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

558
AXPZ20 KNHC 131547
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Nov 13 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Significant NW Swell Event: A series of NW swell sets will
continue to impact the waters N of 10N the next several days. 
Currently, seas are 12 to 16 ft NW of a line from 30N121W to 
23N128W to 20N140W, with peak seas around near 29N130W, and 
wave periods of 13-14 seconds. A reinforcing and larger set of NW
swell will arrive later today, with peak seas around 22 ft near 
30N135W by early this evening. By Sat afternoon, this set with 
seas of 12 ft or greater will reach across the waters W of about
30N118W to 20N132W to 20N140W and peak seas of 22 ft near 
30N126W. Those seas will keep spreading southeastward as yet 
another set with seas of 12 ft or greater arrives to near 30N140W
by late Sat night, spreading across the majority of the waters 
into early next week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas 
Forecast at website: 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/HSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from near NW Colombia westward 
to across northern Costa Rica and to 10N86W to 05N96W to 
06N102W, where it briefly pauses. It resumes at 07N107W to 
08N116W and to 03N127W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 
02N133W and to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is from 00N to 13N between 113W-122W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between
133W-137W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to strong northerly winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
supported by the pressure gradient between a high pressure system
over southern United States and Mexico, and lower pressure with 
the monsoon trough south of the area. Seas over these waters are
6 to 9 ft in W to NW swell. Meanwhile, a weak pressure gradient 
is present in the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with 
mainly light to gentle winds and decaying NW swell producing seas
of 5 to 7 ft over most of the area S of Punta Eugenia, except 
for slight seas in the Gulf of California. North of Punta 
Eugenia, seas rough seas to 8 ft are present as a new set of 
long-period NW swell continues to propagate through the waters
west of Baja California Norte.
For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas
around 9 ft will continue through tonight across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. The next Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to 
begin by Mon evening and continue through much of the next week. 
Winds may reach gale-force starting Tue evening, if not sooner. 
Meanwhile, a weakening cold front will move across the offshore 
waters of Baja California today, bringing fresh winds and a batch
of rough seas approaching 12 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds
in the northern Gulf of California will diminish by early Sat.
A rather expansive set of NW swell arriving Sat is expected 
to build seas to around 19 ft over the outer offshore waters
of Baja California Norte. Rough seas will reach all the way to 
past 100W by early next week, while additional and reinforcing NW
swell sets continue to arrive. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The pressure gradient has diminished in the Gulf of Papagayo
region due to a cold front moving across the Gulf of America and
northern Florida. This is resulting in light to gentle winds, 
and slight to moderate seas across the Central America offshores. 
Otherwise, moderate or weaker SSW winds and moderate seas of 5 to
7 ft are present between the Galapagos Islands and the coast of 
Ecuador. Slightly higher winds and seas are possible due to 
clusters of moderate to strong convection offshore Ecuador. 
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast 
to return to the Papagayo region by late Sat night, reach strong 
speeds by Mon night, and continue through Thu. Moderate N winds 
may pulse in the Gulf of Panama early next week. Otherwise, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in merging SW and NW 
swell will prevail, except locally rough SSW of the Galapagos 
Islands through tonight. Looking ahead, a set of NW swell may 
build seas to 8 ft or greater SSW of the Galapagos Islands by the
middle of next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a series of significant NW swell sets which will impact much of
the open waters.
A dissipating cold front extends from 30N117W south-southwestward
to 23N122W and to 17N140W. The pressure gradient between high 
pressure centered well WNW of the area, and the aforementioned 
front sustains moderate to fresh NW-N winds behind the front. Old
and decaying NW swell supports seas of 6 to 8 ft out ahead of 
the front while 10 to 14 ft seas in long-period NW swell are 
behind the front. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and rough seas 
to 11 ft are from 12N to 20N and west of 136W. Merging SW and NW
swells supports combined seas of 7 to 9 ft over the waters S of 
10 between 94W and 125W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker 
along with moderate seas as detected in overnight Ascat 
scatterometer data and by recent altimeter satellite data passes.
For the forecast, fresh NW winds behind the aforementioned cold 
front will diminish to moderate speeds by this evening as 
the dissipating frontal boundary reaches from near 27N114W to 
21N125W and to 16N140W. Very large seas in NW swell will follow
in behind the frontal boundary. Another cold front will sweep 
across the area today into the weekend, bringing even larger 
reinforcing NW swell, possibly reaching 24 ft along 30N. This set
of swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the waters N of
05N and W of 110W by late Sat night, then covering all of the 
waters W of 105W. Yet another set of large swell will arrive Sun,
with seas of 8 ft or greater across the entire waters W of 105W 
by late Sun night, then across the waters W of 95W by Tue 
evening. Meanwhile, the mixed swell over the equatorial waters 
will diminish by early Sat. Looking ahead, another cold front 
may move into the NW waters by the end of the weekend and into 
early next week bringing a large area of fresh to strong winds 
behind it as high pressure builds in behind the front.