Tropical Cyclone Discussion

821
WTPA44 PHFO 120835
TCDCP4
 
Tropical Depression Pena Discussion Number  23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Wed Nov 11 2026

Deep convection associated with Pena has collapsed over the past few
hours, likely due to an increasingly dry mid-level environment.
Although Pena is forecast to become a remnant low by 24 h, this
transition could occur sooner if deep convection fails to redevelop
over the next several hours. The latest subjective and objective
D-MINT and D-PRINT intensity estimates reflect this downward trend,
with values generally near 30 kt. Given these estimates and the lack
of deep convection, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt. After
transitioning to a remnant low, Pena is expected to open into a
trough and dissipate by Friday evening.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/14 kt. Track
guidance remains tightly clustered over the next couple of days,
showing Pena continuing generally westward south of a strong low- to
mid-level subtropical ridge. The latest NHC track forecast is
virtually unchanged from the previous prediction, while the
intensity forecast has been lowered slightly to reflect the recent
deterioration in Pena's structure.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0900Z  9.8N 172.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z  9.9N 174.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 10.0N 177.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/1800Z 10.2N 180.0E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED