Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
889 AXNT20 KNHC 112132 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Nov 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W southwestward to 05.5N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05.5N21W to just NE of the coast of Brazil at 03N48W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 12N between Africa and 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak trough over the western Gulf is inducing scattered moderate convection offshore the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as offshore NE Mexico. Moderate NW winds are found W of the trough over the western Gulf nearshore waters. Elsewhere, mainly high pressure dominates, with gentle NE winds, along with seas of 3 ft or less, except to 4 ft W of the trough. For the forecast, a strong cold front will reach the Texas coast early on Thu, then sweep across the basin through Thu night exiting the area early on Fri. Fresh to locally strong north winds and building seas are expected in its wake. High pressure will build southward into the region this weekend, with increasing easterly winds as the high shifts eastward Sun. Strong east winds are likely across portions of the northern Gulf starting on Sun as the pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching weather system, with an associated cold front that will move offshore the Texas coast by Mon morning. The strong east winds will shift to mostly the NE Gulf Mon and Mon night as the front and a trough translate eastward across the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the region and lower pressure over South America is leading to fresh to strong trades over the central portion of the basin from 11N to 18N, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except weaker near the coast of Central America and in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the central Caribbean from 11N to 18N, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 2 to 4 ft over the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW basin between Cuba and Honduras and Belize due to upper-level divergence. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and locally rough seas will prevail over the south-central Caribbean into Thu night, with mainly moderate winds and seas elsewhere. The pressure gradient will weaken starting Fri as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel, leading to a weakening of the trades. Moderate northeast to east winds and slightly building seas are likely behind this front over the northwestern Caribbean this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 29N45W to 26N60W. Isolated showers are associated with a pre-frontal trough N of 28N around 41W, otherwise little sensible weather is associated with this front. To the east, a cold front extends from the Iberian Peninsula through 31N11W to 22N41W. Ahead of this front, fresh to strong SW winds prevail with moderate to fresh winds NW of the front to 26W. Rough to very rough associated seas are found N of 20N and E of 37W. Upper-level divergence is leading to scattered to numerous moderate convection N of the Greater Antilles to 26N, between 63W and 74W. Across the remainder of the waters, weak high pressure is leading to moderate or weaker winds and mainly moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Thu night accompanied by fresh to strong winds and building seas on either side of it. The front is expected to reach from near 31N64W to eastern Cuba by Sat afternoon, and from near 30N55W to 25N64W and stationary to eastern Cuba by early on Sun. Fresh to strong southwest winds will be east of the cold front along with seas possibly peaking to around 12 ft on Sat. The cold front portion will shift east of 55W late Sun while the stationary portion weakens. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected north of the stationary front to near 28N through Mon night.