Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

286
AXPZ20 KNHC 111906
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Nov 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure in the
Caribbean Sea at 10.5N74.5W to across Costa Rica to 09.5N84.5W 
to 04.5N100.5W. The ITCZ extends from 04.5N100.5W to 06.5N136.5W 
to 1010 mb low pressure near 08.5N139.5W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is observed from 00N to 04.5N between 
78.5W and 82.5W, from 00.5N to 08N between 106W and 118W, and 
from 00N to 13N between 128W and 140W. Similar convection is 
found from 12N to 15.5N between 115.5W and 120W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
High pressure north of the area continues to support fresh to
near strong northerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft across the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. Meanwhile, broad ridging extends southeastward 
across the Baja California waters to the Revillagigedo Islands, 
allowing for mainly light to gentle winds in the rest of the 
Mexican offshore waters, except moderate in the Gulf of 
California where the pressure gradient is slightly tighter.
Decaying long-period NW swell is producing seas of 7-9 ft in the
offshore waters of Baja California. Elsewhere, slight to 
moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 
ft will pulse to strong at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through the remainder of the week. The next Tehuantepec gap wind
event may occur early next week, with winds at least to near 
gale-force by Mon night. Decaying rough seas in NW swell in the 
Baja California waters will diminish through tonight. Fresh to 
locally strong winds and a new batch of rough seas approaching 
12 ft are expected to reach the offshore waters of Baja 
California by early Fri, associated with a frontal system. Fresh 
to locally strong winds may also briefly impact the northern Gulf
of California Fri. Meanwhile, a larger NW swell arriving Sat 
will produce high seas to 20 ft. Rough seas will reach all the 
way to past 100W by early next week, while additional and 
reinforcing NW swell sets continue to arrive. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A broad subtropical ridge centered over the Gulf of America and
the western Atlantic extends southward and is supporting moderate
to fresh NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft across the Gulf of Papagayo
region. Farther east, winds have diminished in the Gulf of 
Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent, except locally rough seas SW of the Galapagos Islands
in merging long period SW and NW swells.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will funnel across 
the Papagayo region and extend to 90W through Thu. Moderate to 
fresh winds may return to the Papagayo region by the end of the 
weekend into early next week, possibly reaching strong speeds by
late Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Panama tonight, and then again by the end of the 
weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in
merging SW and NW swell will prevail, except locally rough SSW 
of the Galapagos Islands through the week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A cold front has pushed into the far NW waters in the past few
hours just SE of 30N140W. Fresh to strong winds and building
rough seas in NW swell are found on either side of the front. To
the S, broad lower pressures are analyzed along the monsoon 
trough over the W-central waters. Active nearby convection is 
described above with the monsoon trough section. The pressure 
gradient between these lower pressures and broad ridging in place
ahead of the cold front is supporting moderate to fresh winds 
from roughly 12N to 20N to the W of 125W. Winds are moderate or 
weaker across the remainder of the open waters, locally fresh S 
of the Equator and W of 100W. Meanwhile, old and decaying long-
period NW swell with seas of 7-10 ft covers most the waters N of 
05N and W of 108W. Merging SW and NW long- period swells support
seas of 7-10 ft across the waters S of 05N and W of 95W.
For the forecast, high pressure combined with lower pressure 
over the W-central waters will support moderate to locally strong
easterly winds and rough seas across the trade waters through 
the rest of the week. A strong cold front will move across the
northern waters tonight into Thu, bringing with it fresh to 
strong winds on either side of the front, and very large seas in 
NW swell north of 20N through the end of the week. Even larger 
reinforcing NW swell may arrive Fri afternoon to the NW waters, 
possibly reaching 25 ft along 30N. This set of swell with seas of
8 ft or greater will cover the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by 
late Sat night, then covering all of the waters W of 105W. Yet 
another set of large swell will arrive Sun, with seas of 8 ft or 
greater across the entire waters W of 105W by late Sun night. 
Meanwhile, the mixed swell over the equatorial waters will also 
persist and mix with the NW swells for the next several days. 
Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the NW waters by the 
end of the weekend into early next week bringing a large area of 
fresh to strong winds behind it as high pressure builds in.