Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

441
AXPZ20 KNHC 110337
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Nov 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0255 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N91W. The ITCZ
stretches from 06N91W to 05N110W and to 09N132W. Scattered
moderate convection is found south of 15N and west of 105W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The tight pressure gradient between a 1021 mb high pressure 
system over the southern United States and lower pressures in the
deep tropics sustains fresh to strong northerly winds and seas 
of 5-7 ft across the Gulf of Tehuantepec basin. Meanwhile, broad 
ridging extends southeastward across the Baja California waters to 
the Revillagigedo Island, allowing for moderate or lighter winds. 
Long-period NW swell is producing seas of 8-12 ft in the offshore 
waters of Baja California W and N of Cabo San Lazaro, with the 
highest seas occurring W of Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere, slight to 
moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 
ft will pulse to strong to locally near gale-force at night 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the remainder of the week. 
Rough seas in NW swell will continue across the Baja offshore 
waters, then begin to diminish tonight through Thu. Looking 
ahead, fresh winds and rough seas approaching 12 ft are expected
to reach the offshore waters of Baja California by early Fri
through the day, associated with a frontal system. Yet a larger 
NW swell arriving Sat will produce very rough seas to 20 ft. 
Rough seas will reach all the way to near 100W by early next 
week, while additional and reinforcing NW swell sets continue to 
arrive.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
High pressure centered north of the Caribbean supports moderate to 
fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-5 ft in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are 
occurring in the Gulf of Panama to near the Azuero Peninsula. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds 
will funnel across the Papagayo region and extend to 90W through 
Wed night, then diminish for the end of the week into the 
weekend. Moderate to fresh winds may return to the Papagayo
region by the end of the weekend into early next week. Moderate 
to locally fresh winds will pulse in the western Gulf of Panama 
through Wed morning, then again by the end of the weekend. 
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in merging 
SW and NW swell will prevail, except locally rough SSW of the 
Galapagos Islands through the week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface trough in the western trade waters supports scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. The rest of the tropical
eastern Pacific waters is under a broad subtropical ridge. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the
deep tropics supports fresh to locally strong easterly trade
winds and seas of 8-11 ft from 10N to 25N and west of 120W.
Moderate to fresh SE winds and rough seas are found south of 03N
and between 100W and 125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and seas of 5-8 ft prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure combined with troughing over the
W-central waters will support moderate to fresh easterly winds 
and rough seas across the trade waters during the next few days. 
New large NW swell moving into the north and western waters will 
reach from 10N140W to the Revillagigedo Islands tonight. The 
mixed swell over the equatorial waters will persist for the next 
several days. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will reach our 
NW border at 30N140W by midday Wed, bringing with it fresh to 
strong winds on either side of the front, and very large seas in
NW swell north of 20N through the end of the week. Even larger 
reinforcing NW swell may arrive Fri afternoon to the NW waters, 
possibly in excess of 20 ft. This set of swell with seas of 8 ft 
or greater will cover the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by late 
Sat night, then covering all of the waters W of 105W.