Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
729 AXNT20 KNHC 110307 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Nov 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Meteo-France Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: SW winds to gale-force will persist through early Wed from the waters north of the Canary Islands to off Agadir, Morocco, with 12 to 18 ft seas. These gales and rough to very rough seas are ahead of a complex pair of low pressure systems west and northwest of the Canary Islands moving rapidly to the northeast. Winds and seas will start to diminish after 12 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 09N20W. The ITCZ extends from 09N20W to 07N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 09N between 30W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak pressure pattern continues between 1021 mb high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley and troughs over the western Gulf and southeast Gulf. This pattern is supporting light to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas across the basin. A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the far northwest Gulf along the upper Texas coast. For the forecast, a rather strong cold front will reach the Texas coast Wed night, then sweep across the Gulf through Thu night, exiting the basin early on Fri, followed by fresh to locally strong northerly winds and building seas. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected in the far SW Gulf Thu through Fri. High pressure will settle in over the area in the wake of the front this weekend, with moderate to fresh easterly winds expected. These winds increase to fresh to strong speeds over the NW Gulf Sun, then shifting to the north-central and NE Gulf by Sun night as the gradient tightens ahead of a western Gulf frontal system and attendant low pressure that will be shifting eastward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the region and lower pressure over South America is leading to fresh to strong trades over the south central basin, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except weaker near the coast of Central America and in the NE Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the south- central Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 2-4 ft over the northwest Caribbean. A few showers are active across the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and locally rough seas will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Thu, with mainly moderate winds and seas elsewhere. The pressure gradient will weaken Thu night into Fri as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel, weakening the trades. Moderate to fresh northwest winds and building seas are possible behind this front over the northwestern Caribbean into the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning for portions of the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast area. A stationary front extends from near 29N55W to low pressure of 1017 mb near 27N62W. A cold front extends from the low pressure southwestward to 23N67W, east of 1021 high pressure centered near 28N72W. To the east, fresh or greater winds surround the gale force low area described in the Special Features section above across the waters north of 20N east of 45W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters, along with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the front and low pressure will exit the region Wed. Another cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Thu accompanied by fresh to strong winds and building seas on both sides of it. These conditions are expected to persist into the weekend. By Sat, the front will stall from near 26N55W to the vicinity of the Turks and Caicos.