Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTPA44 PHFO 110232
TCDCP4
 
Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Nov 10 2026
 
Deep convection near and over Pena's center has persisted most of 
the day today. Previously, there was some doubt about whether Pena's 
circulation was closed due to a lack of scatterometry or microwave 
data. However, ASCAT data from around 2015 UTC confirmed the 
presence of a closed (if not broad) circulation with peak winds of 
35 to 40 kt, indicating Pena remains a tropical storm. Given the 
ASCAT data and recent objective satellite estimates, the initial 
intensity is raised slightly to 40 kt.

Pena's motion is estimated to be 270/8 kt. The cyclone continues to 
be steered by a high pressure ridge centered to the north of Pena. 
Track guidance depicts the cyclone gradually turning to the 
west-northwest over the next day or so, picking up forward speed as 
it gains latitude as well. The latest NHC track guidance is 
essentially unchanged from the previous advisory, with the main 
adjustments being to the system's forward speed through the forecast 
period. 
 
The ASCAT data confirmed that Pena has an intact circulation, and 
environmental conditions are conducive for marginal near term 
strengthening. However, Pena's dissipation time has been moved up 24 
hours once again, in alignment with global models. As Pena gains 
latitude, it is expected to enter a more hostile environment, and 
global models generally depict the cyclone opening up into a trough 
during the day either Thursday or Friday. The latest NHC intensity 
forecast generally follows HCCA guidance in allowing for some slight 
strengthening for Pena over the next day, before showing a gradual 
weakening cycle through the end of the week as the system encounters 
drier air, increasing vertical wind shear, and cooler SSTs.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 10.5N 166.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 10.4N 167.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 10.4N 169.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 10.8N 172.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 11.2N 176.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  13/1200Z 11.6N 179.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 12.0N 178.1E   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED