Tropical Cyclone Discussion
427 WTPA44 PHFO 102045 TCDCP4 Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number 17 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP042026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Tue Nov 10 2026 Satellite imagery over the last couple of hours shows Pena's convective shield expanding. With how large the system's deep convection is, however, it is difficult to track Pena's inner vortex and thus fully assess the cyclone's strength. SAR microwave imagery from around 1630 UTC shows little organization under the convection, and recent visible images suggest the low-level center lies near the western edge of the convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates are also relatively steady since the last advisory, with HFO at 2.5/35 kt and UW-CIMSS between 30-40 kt, respectively. As a result of these data, the initial intensity is held steady at 35 kt. Pena's motion has turned west-southwest at around 8 kt. The cyclone's motion continues to be steered by a high pressure ridge anchored to storm's northwest. Track guidance has Pena continuing on this motion for the rest of the day, before the skillful guidance turns it back to the west tomorrow and then to the west-northwest later in the week. The latest NHC track forecast is shifted to the right slightly, as skilled guidance such as the HCCA and GDMI are more aggressive in depicting Pena's turn to the northwest, but overall reflects a middle ground solution between these two models and the previous advisory. As it has been stated over the past few days, Pena's intensity forecast remains challenging, as the overall environment suggests favorable conditions for strengthening, yet Pena has held steady all the while. What little data that's available in depicting Pena's structure implies that the storm's central vortex lacks structure, which has hindered opportunities for intensification. In fact, it is entirely possible that Pena currently lacks a closed low-level circulation, however this is hard to confirm without a complete scatterometer pass. As a result of this uncertainty, Pena's intensity forecast has been held flat over the next several days, with the possibility that the system could be declared a remnant low later today. Should scatterometer data confirm a closed circulation, however, Pena could experience at least modest strengthening, given its environment of warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear, and ample mid-level moisture. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 10.8N 165.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 10.7N 166.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 10.6N 169.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 10.8N 172.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 11.3N 175.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 11.9N 179.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 12.4N 178.2E 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 12.5N 174.0E 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED