Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
534 AXNT20 KNHC 101738 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Nov 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near 30N34W to 21N49W. Ahead of this front, gale-force southwesterlies are present N of 27N and E of 33W, extending to about 28W. Very rough seas of up to 20 ft extend beyond this area of gales southward to 22W and westward to 43W. This low pressure and cold front will move rapidly east, ending gales west of 35W later this morning. However, very rough seas will prevail into tonight, with rough seas decaying below 8 ft Wed evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 09N21W. The ITCZ extends from 09N21W to 07N35W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N east of 48W. GULF OF AMERICA... 1022 mb high pressure is centered over the lower Mississippi Valley. This is supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas through the basin. A surface trough has moved into the Gulf, extending from near Corpus Christi down to the coastal waters of Mexico, producing scattered moderate convection within 60 nm either side of its axis. For the forecast, Broad high pressure across the area supports gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Winds will diminish further until Wed night, when a cold front will exit the Texas coast and move SE through the basin, exiting by Fri. The front will bring fresh to locally strong winds and building seas. High pressure will settle in in the wake of the front this weekend with moderate to fresh easterly winds expected. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the region and lower pressure over South America is leading to fresh to strong trades over the south central basin, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the south-central Caribbean and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere. Moderate convection is noted in and near the Gulf of Honduras, where trade winds are converging near a surface trough and producing localized rough seas. For the forecast, Fresh to strong trades and locally rough seas will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Thu, with mainly moderate winds and seas elsewhere. The pressure gradient will weaken Thu night into Fri as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel, weakening the trades. Moderate to fresh NW winds and building seas are possible behind this front in the NW basin into the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning for waters N of 25N and E of 40W. In addition to the gale center listed in the Special Features section, a weak 1016 mb low pressure is centered near 28N65W. A stationary front extends from 31N51W to the low pressure to the SE Bahamas. Outside the area of winds and seas described in the Special Features near the gale center, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in a mix of swell. For the forecast west of 55W, A cold front extends from 31N56W through a 1016 mb low centered near 27N67W to the SE Bahamas. This front and low will move east through tonight and exit the region by Wed. Another front will move off the SE U.S. coast Thu, bringing fresh to strong winds and building seas on both sides of it, that will prevail into the weekend. By early Sat, the front will extend from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas.