Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

987
AXPZ20 KNHC 101510
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Nov 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1450 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 1011 mb low pressure on the coast
of NW Colombia at 10.5N74.5W to the Gulf of Panama at 07N79.5W 
to along the coast of western Panama and Costa Rica to 1011 mb 
low pressure at 10N92.5W to 06.5N96W. The ITCZ stretches from 
06.5N96W to 05N129W where it ends due to a NE to SW surface 
trough to the W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed from 03.4S to 02N between 78.5W and 83W, from 04N to
06.5N between 77W and 82W, within 90 nm in the N quadrant of the
low at 10N92.5W, from 03N to 12N between 102W and 121W, and from
00N to 15N between 121W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The tight pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high pressure
system over the southern United States and lower pressures in 
the deep tropics sustains fresh to strong northerly winds and 
seas of 5-7 ft across the Gulf of Tehuantepec basin. Meanwhile,
broad ridging extends southeastward across the Baja California
waters to the Revillagigedo Islands, supporting moderate or 
weaker winds across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.
Long-period NW swell is producing seas of 7-11 ft in the 
offshore waters of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, 
with the highest seas occurring west of Guadalupe island. 
Elsewhere, slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 
ft will pulse to strong to locally near gale-force at night 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the remainder of the week. 
Rough seas in NW swell will continue across the Baja offshore 
waters, then begin to diminish tonight through Thu. Looking 
ahead, fresh winds and rough seas approaching 12 ft are expected
to reach the offshore waters of Baja California on Fri, 
associated with a frontal system. Yet a larger NW swell arriving 
Sat will produce very rough seas to 19 ft. Rough seas will reach
all the way to near 100W by early next week.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
High pressure centered north of the the Caribbean supports
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft in the
Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to locally fresh northerly 
winds and seas of 3-5 ft are occurring in the Gulf of Panama. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds 
will funnel across the Papagayo region and extend to 90W through 
Wed night, then diminish into the weekend. Moderate to locally 
fresh winds will pulse in the western Gulf of Panama through Wed 
morning. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
in merging SW and NW swell will prevail, except locally rough 
SSW of the Galapagos Islands through the week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Broad high pressure covers the northern waters. A surface trough
is to the south analyzed from 15N125W to 06N136W. The pressure
gradient between the ridging and trough supports moderate to
fresh winds from 11N to 21N to the W of the trough. Moderate or
weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters. Rough NW
swell with heights of 8-11 ft covers the majority of the waters N
of 10N and W of 115W. Merging SW and NW swell supports rough seas
of 7-10 ft S of 10N between 100W and 130W. Moderate seas prevail
across the remainder of the open waters.
For the forecast, high pressure combined with troughing over the
W-central waters will support moderate to fresh easterly winds 
and rough seas across the trade waters during the next few days. 
New large NW swell moving into the north and western waters will 
reach from 10N140W to the Revillagigedo Islands tonight. The 
mixed swell over the equatorial waters will persist for the next 
several days. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will reach our 
NW border at 30N140W by midday Wed, bringing with it fresh to 
strong NW winds and very large seas in NW swell north of 20N 
through the end of the week. Even larger reinforcing NW swell may
arrive Fri afternoon to the NW waters, possibly in excess of 20 
ft. This set of swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the
waters N of 05N and W of 110W by late Sat night.