Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
209 AXNT20 KNHC 100424 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Nov 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from an occluded 997 mb low pressure centered near 31N49W to 22N47W, then is a trough to 18N60W. The low and associated front are moving to the E-NE at 20 kt. Recent scatterometer satellite data shows winds reaching 35 to 45 kt within 120 nm of the center of the low. Concurrent altimeter satellite data shows rough to very rough seas in this area as well. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas extend from north of 20N between 30W and 55W. The low pressure and associated strong to gale force winds will move east of 35W by Tue afternoon. Associated seas 8 ft or greater will gradually subside west of 35W through Wed afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 07N35W to 08N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 09N east of 25W, 03N to 09N between 30W and 40W. GULF OF AMERICA... 1023 mb high pressure is centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, with weak 1017 mb low pressure centered northeast Mexico. This is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the basin, with 1-3 ft seas over the eastern Gulf and 2-4 ft seas over the western Gulf. For the forecast, broad high pressure across the area supports gentle to moderate winds except locally fresh in the NW Gulf. Slight seas dominate the NE half of the basin with moderate seas elsewhere. Winds will diminish to light to gentle across the basin by Wed. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed night and rapidly shift across the Gulf basin, moving SE of the area by Fri. The front will be followed by fresh to locally strong winds and building seas. High pressure will settle across the basin in the wake of the front during the weekend with moderate to fresh return flow. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... 1020 mb high pressure is centered north of the area near 29N75W, supporting fresh to strong winds off northwest Venezuela, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate are noted elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers are observed between eastern Honduras and Grand Cayman Island. For the forecast, moderate trades will prevail, except fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse in the south-central basin. Rough seas will occur where the winds are highest, otherwise seas will be mainly moderate. By the end of the week, the pressure gradient will weaken as a cold front approaches from the northwest, so trades will lessen. The front may enter the NW Caribbean Fri and gradually wash out into the weekend, with moderate to fresh winds and building seas behind it. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning and associated conditions near 45W. In addition to the gale center listed in the Special Features section, a weak 1015 mb low pressure is centered near 27N68W. A cold front extends from 31N57W to the low pressure to the central Bahamas. Outside the area of winds and seas described in the Special Features near the gale center, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in a mix of swell. For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure across the area supports gentle to moderate winds except locally fresh in the NW Gulf. Slight seas dominate the NE half of the basin with moderate seas elsewhere. Winds will diminish to light to gentle across the basin by Wed. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed night and rapidly shift across the Gulf basin, moving SE of the area by Fri. The front will be followed by fresh to locally strong winds and building seas. High pressure will settle across the basin in the wake of the front during the weekend with moderate to fresh return flow.