Tropical Cyclone Discussion

659
WTPA44 PHFO 100231
TCDCP4
 
Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  14
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Mon Nov 09 2026
 
Pena continues to be poorly organized this afternoon, with a
loosely defined low-level circulation located on the western edge of
the deep convection. Unfortunately, recent scatterometer passes
missed the system, leaving some uncertainty regarding the current
surface wind field. Based on earlier SAR data and a relatively
steady-state satellite appearance, the initial intensity is held at
35 kt for this advisory.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be 275/12 kt. Pena is forecast to
continue moving generally westward, steered by a low- to mid-level
ridge located to its north in the central Pacific. This ridge is
expected to weaken in response to an approaching shortwave trough,
which should result in a more northwestward motion. The updated NHC
track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and lies
near the HCCA and the Google DeepMind aids.
 
Although environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable with
warm sea surface temperatures and abundant mid-level moisture, Pena
continues to struggle to organize due to persistent mid-level wind
shear, and not being able to establish an inner core. Toward the end
of the forecast period, dry air is anticipated to entrain into the
circulation, which could cause the system to degenerate into a
remnant low sooner than currently indicated. The NHC intensity
forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, and
short-term fluctuations in strength are likely. While it is possible
that Pena could open up into a surface trough due to its fast
forward speed and the aforementioned shear, the official forecast
maintains it as a tropical cyclone through the end of the period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 11.7N 162.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 11.7N 164.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 11.4N 166.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 11.3N 168.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 11.6N 171.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  12/1200Z 12.0N 175.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 12.8N 178.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 14.0N 176.2E   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 14.6N 172.2E   35 KT  40 MPH