Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
557 AXNT20 KNHC 092302 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Nov 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 997 mb low pressure is centered near 30N44W, moving eastward near 20 kt. A warm front is north of the low from 30N47W to 31.5N42W to 27N32W. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed a long fetch of gale force SW to S winds occurring in the S and SE quadrant of the low, from 23N to 31N between 40W and 47W, where buoy and altimeter data suggest seas of 12 to 19 ft in mixed swell. Also shown in the scatterometer data north of the warm front, a broad zone of strong to gale force NE to E winds extends northward to 34N between 38W and 47W, where seas are 9 to 14 ft. Across the remaining quadrants of the low, strong winds and rough seas to 10 ft cover the area N of 20N to 34N between 35W and 55W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring mostly to east of this deep- layered low pressure system, N of 28N between 34W and 39W. The low has begun to accelerate to the east-northeast and will move east of 35W by midday Tue. The broad zone of strong to gale force SW winds occurring with the low will shift in sync with the low through Tue, generating very rough to high seas to around 20 ft tonight before exiting the forecast area Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 11N15W to 09N20W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 05.5N34W to 07.5N51W to 06.5N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 15W and 22W, from 03N to 07N between 30W and 39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12.5N between 47W and 57W. GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough extends along coastal Deep South Texas to the Mexican offshore waters near 20N95W, and is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 22N and W of 92W. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas in the 4 to 6 ft range are N of 24N and W of 94W, while light to gentle winds and slight seas are elsewhere E of 90W. For the forecast, broad high pressure across the area supports gentle to moderate winds except locally fresh in the NW Gulf. Slight seas dominate the NE half of the basin with moderate seas elsewhere. Winds will diminish to light to gentle across the basin by midweek. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Thu and rapidly shift across the Gulf basin, moving SE of the area Fri. The front will be followed by fresh to locally strong winds and building seas. High pressure will settle across the basin in the wake of the front during the weekend with moderate to fresh return flow. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak high pressure has moved into the western Atlantic near 24N69W, bringing a return to easterly trade winds to much of the Caribbean this afternoon. Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across the NW basin with seas of 2-4 ft. Recent scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh trades S of 15N from the SE basin to offshore NE Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area. A surface trough extending from the Gulf of Honduras to the SW Caribbean is generating scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 16N to 21N west of 81W. For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient across the basin has begun to tighten slightly this afternoon, bringing a return to easterly trade winds. By Tue morning, fresh to strong winds will prevail across south central portions, with moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere, except weaker near Central America. Expect rough seas with the fresh to strong winds and mainly slight to moderate seas elsewhere. Winds will weaken over the western portion of the basin toward the end of the week as a cold front approaches from the NW. The front may enter the NW Caribbean Fri and gradually wash out into the weekend, with moderate to fresh winds and building seas behind it. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning and associated conditions across the NE zones. A cold front extends from the central Atlantic through 31N59W to 1015 mb low pressure near 27.5N69W then through the central Bahamas along 24N. North of the front, gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail east of 76W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft in E swell generated by the gale system. Elsewhere west of 60W, winds are light to gentle with seas of 5 to 7 ft in NE swell. East of 35W, a weakening cold front has moved SE of the Canary Islands, with moderate to fresh W winds and seas of 8-12 ft behind the front to 20W and N of 28N. NW swell across this region is producing seas of 7 to 9 ft N of 17N and east of 35W. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the remaining Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong SW winds north of 20N and east of 58W will gradually diminish through the evening as parent gale force low pressure moves farther away from the area. Associated rough to very rough seas in NE swell north of 20N and east of 60W will subside by early Tue. Meanwhile, a cold front extends from 31N59W through a 1015 mb low at 27.5N69W to the Central Bahamas. The front and low will move eastward over the waters north of 25N through midweek. Another, stronger cold front will enter the NW waters toward the end of the week, ushering in fresh to strong winds and building seas on both sides of it. The front should reach from 31N67W to the SE Bahamas by early Sat, continuing eastward while gradually weakening by the end of the weekend.