Tropical Cyclone Discussion
259 WTPA44 PHFO 090244 TCDCP4 Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number 10 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP042026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sun Nov 08 2026 A persistent burst of deep convection remains over the estimated center position of Pena this afternoon, with very cold cloud top temperatures of less than -80 C observed within the CDO. However, a separate area of convection persists to the east of the primary convective burst, suggesting that the tropical storm continues to struggle with consolidating its inner core. An earlier ASCAT-C pass and GPM microwave imagery indicated that Pena's center was located farther south than previously estimated, and the initial position has been adjusted accordingly. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from T3.0/45 kt to T3.5/55 kt, while objective intensity estimates range from 32-47 kt. Based on the latest satellite imagery, the initial intensity is maintained at 40 kt for this advisory. Pena is moving westward at 260/7 kt. Given the shallow nature of the tropical storm, its motion is being governed by a low- to mid-level ridge centered northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. This general motion is forecast to persist through the middle of the week. Thereafter, Pena is forecast to turn west-northwestward and increase its forward speed as a new ridge builds to its north. The latest NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast to account for the southward adjustment of the initial position, and is slightly faster, bringing it into closer alignment with the latest HCCA guidance. Despite moving over very warm sea surface temperatures near 29 C and within an environment with low vertical wind shear and relatively moist mid-level conditions, Pena has thus far been unable to establish a well-defined inner core. A considerable spread remains among the dynamical and statistical guidance, although recent model cycles have gradually trended toward lower peak intensities. Consequently, the potential for significant strengthening appears to be diminishing. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been lowered slightly around midweek and remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 11.4N 157.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 11.4N 159.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 11.3N 161.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 11.3N 163.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 11.2N 165.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 11.1N 168.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 11.3N 170.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 12.6N 177.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 14.4N 177.2E 40 KT 45 MPH