Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
271 AXPZ20 KNHC 082125 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Nov 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N80W to 1007 mb low pres near 11N88W then to 07N94W, where it transitions to ITCZ, continuing on to 04.5N103W to 06.5N116W, where it breaks for a surface trough. The ITCZ resumes at 08N131W and extends beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 06.5N to 12.5N between 82W and 91W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 02N to 07.5N between 105W and 113W, from 11.5N to 16.5N between 115W and 126W, and south of 02.5N between 127W and 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure over the Gulf of America and lower pressure with the monsoon trough over the eastern Tropical Pacific is forcing fresh to strong N gap winds extending southward to near 14N, with seas 7-9 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high offshore of Southern California and lower pressure with a trough over the Gulf of California is forcing only gentle to moderate N to NE winds over the Pacific waters of Baja California, and moderate to locally fresh N winds over the northern Gulf of California. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW swell over Pacific offshore waters north of the Revillagigedo Islands, and 5-7 ft from Las Tres Marias south and southeastward. Seas over the Gulf of California are 2-4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to near gale- force northerly winds and rough seas to 8 ft will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed morning. Another gap wind event may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu night, possibly reaching gale-force into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to large NW swell will impact the Baja California waters into early this week. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas approaching 12 ft may reach the offshore waters of Baja California late in the week, associated with a frontal system. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A 1007 mb low - now denoted as Invest EP96 - is centered near 11N88W, and drifting west-northwestward. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and seas to 8 ft within 90 NM of its center in the N semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 90 nm of the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-7 ft in mixed SW and W swell. For the forecast, some modest development of Invest EP96 is possible through Mon while the system drifts slowly northwestward and away from the coastline. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system turns westward away from land. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development with this system. However, showers and thunderstorms will remain active this evening through at least Mon morning across the waters and along the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Fresh to strong winds will funnel across the Papagayo region north of the invest area this evening, then pulse at fresh to strong through early this week. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the middle of the week. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas, will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging extends from a 1023 mb high near 34N128W southward into the Tropical Pacific waters and southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is forcing only moderate to locally strong trades, with strongest winds occurring north of a surface trough from 09N126W to 15N122W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring near the trough from 11.5N to 16.5N between 115W and 126W. Large NW swell is reaching south to 09N and east of 110W this afternoon, producing seas of 8 to 14 ft, highest NW portions. Also, mixed SE and SW swell is merging with the NW swell to produce seas of 7-9 ft south of 05N and west of 96W. For the forecast, the surface ridge will amplify some, increasing the trades to fresh from 10N-22N west of 125W Mon night into Wed. While the current NW swell will gradually subside, another reinforcing pulse of swell will be entering the NW forecast waters later this afternoon and evening. The large NW swell will reach from 20N140W to 20N120W Tue night. The mixed swell over the equatorial waters will persist for the next several days. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will reach our NW border at 30N140W Wed bringing with it fresh to strong NW winds and very large seas north of 22N through at least Thu.