Tropical Cyclone Discussion
401 WTPA44 PHFO 082056 TCDCP4 Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number 9 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP042026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sun Nov 08 2026 Satellite imagery shows bursts of deep convection near the center, but they lack sustained curvature and organization, pulsing intermittently rather than consolidating. A trailing, broken curved band remains displaced to the east of the center, likely the result of light-to-moderate south-southwesterly vertical wind shear and upper-level outflow displacement. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both PHFO and PGTW were T3.0/45 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 31 to 43 kt. Given the latest satellite presentation and the spread in available data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/10 kt. Pena is forecast to maintain a generally westward motion over the next several days while being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge anchored north of the system across the central Pacific. As this ridge shifts eastward, the cyclone is forecast to accelerate slightly while turning northwestward toward the end of the forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast closely mirrors the previous track and aligns with the latest HCCA aid. Statistical SHIPS guidance suggests that Pena will remain in environmental conditions favorable for strengthening, characterized by warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), light vertical wind shear, and high mid-level moisture. However, given its current lack of organization, the cyclone may struggle to consolidate an inner core and take advantage of these conditions, raising uncertainty regarding its long-term survival. The dynamical and statistical guidance reflects this dilemma, showing a wide spread that ranges from intensification into a hurricane to complete dissipation before the end of the forecast period. Consequently, forecast confidence remains lower than average. The updated NHC intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the previous advisory, keeping the cyclone in the middle of the multi-model envelope and below HCCA and GDMI consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 11.6N 157.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 11.6N 158.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 11.5N 160.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 11.4N 162.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 11.4N 164.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 11.3N 166.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 11.3N 169.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 12.1N 175.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 14.2N 178.4E 45 KT 50 MPH