Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
921 AXNT20 KNHC 081641 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Nov 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 999 mb low pressure is centered near 28N56W this morning. A 1227 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated peak winds of 35 kt near 30N53W. Additionally, a 1430 UTC Sentinel-6A altimeter pass showed peak seas of 15 ft in the same area. Seas are 8 ft or higher north of 20N between 45W-70W. A surface trough extends from the low southward to 18N60W with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 17N-23N between 50W-63W. A warm front extends eastward from the low to 24N36W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 24N-30N between 40W-55W. The low will move east- northeastward, shifting east of the forecast waters by midweek. An area of strong to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking near 14 ft, will prevail north of the low, impacting the waters mainly north of about 28N and east of 60W through today. After the gale diminishes, a large area of fresh to near gale SW winds will promote 12-18 ft seas through Tue night in our marine waters. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leon 07N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ extends from 07N14W to 04N41W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-08N east of 18W. GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front is located from the Florida Keys to 23N88W, but with no significant winds, seas, or convection. Ridging north of the Gulf is promoting gentle to moderate winds and seas 2-5 ft across forecast waters today. A surface trough along the NE Mexico coastline north of 22N and extending inland into S Texas is promoting scattered moderate convection north of 25N west of 97W. For the forecast, a frontal boundary from the Florida Straits to 23N88W will dissipate by late Mon. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail behind the front. High pressure will then build across the area, with winds diminishing to gentle to moderate. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Thu and rapidly shift across the Gulf basin. The front will be followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Due to the gale-force low northeast of the Caribbean, the pressure gradient across forecast waters is weak, promoting only gentle to moderate winds and seas 1-4 ft. A surface trough extends from 17N67W to 10N70W with scattered moderate convection from 10N-17N between 66W-70W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring over the Leeward Islands from 17N-19N between 60W-64W. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will result in moderate or weaker trade winds, along with slight to moderate seas, through Mon. Winds will strengthen over the central Caribbean by Tuesday and then prevail through the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning. Aside from the low in Special Features, a stationary front begins at 23N35W to 12N29W, where it transitions to a cold front to 31N15W. Winds are fresh to strong with seas 8-15 ft north of 26N east of 30W. Additionally, large N swell continued north of 25N between 30W-45W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 21N-30N between 25W-33W and north of 27N east of 18W. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the low pres in the Special Features will move east-northeastward, shifting east of the forecast waters by midweek. Elsewhere, a cold front extends from 31N69W to the NW Bahamas then stationary to the Florida Straits. The stationary portion of the front will dissipate by Mon while the cold front will move eastward over the waters N of 25N through the middle of the week.