Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
561 AXPZ20 KNHC 081459 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Nov 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica near 11N86W to a 1007 mb low at 11N88W then to 06N97W. The ITCZ begins at 06N97W to 09N116W, where it breaks for a surface trough. The ITCZ restarts at 06N129W and extends beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 07N-14N east of 91W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 11N-15N between 118W-126W. Isolated moderate conveciton is occurring south of 06N between 106W-132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure over the Gulf of America and lower pressure with the monsoon trough is forcing a fresh to strong N to NE gap wind event with seas 8-9 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high offshore from California and lower pressure with a trough over the Gulf of California is forcing only gentle to moderate N to NE winds over the Pacific waters and moderate to locally fresh NW winds over the Gulf of California. Seas are 8-10 ft in NW swell over Pacific waters south to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 5-7 ft from Cabo Corrientes southward. Seas over the Gulf of California are 2-4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to near gale- force northerly winds and rough seas to 8 ft will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue night. Another gap wind event may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu night, possibly reaching gale-force into the upcoming weekend. A moderate to large NW swell will impact the Baja California waters into early this week. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas may reach the offshore waters of Baja California late in the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A 1007 mb low - now denoted as Invest EP96 - centered at 11N88W is producing fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 8 ft within 60 NM of its center in the N semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 07N-14N east of 91W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-7 ft. For the forecast, some development of Invest EP96 is possible over the next day or so while the system drifts slowly northwestward. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system turns westward away from land. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development with this system. Fresh to strong winds will funnel through the Gulf of Papagayo north of the invest area today, then pulse at fresh to strong through early this week. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the middle of the week. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas, will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging extends from a 1022 mb high near 34N130W to 29N140W. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the ITCZ is forcing only moderate to locally strong trades. A surface trough from 08N126W to 14N121W is not currently causing any noteworthy winds or seas, though scattered moderate convection is occurring from 11N-15N between 118W-126W. Large, long- period NW swell is reaching south to 10N and east of 115W this morning. Also south of 02N west of 110W mixed NW and SE swell is forcing 8-9 ft seas. For the forecast, the surface will amplify some, increasing the trades to fresh from 10N-22N west of 125W Mon night into Wed. While the current NW swell will gradually diminish, another reinforcing swell will be entering our forecast waters later today. The large NW swell will reach from 20-N140W to 20N120W Tue night. The mixed swell over the equatorial waters will persist for the next several days. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will reach our NW border at 30N140W Wed bringing with it fresh to strong NW winds and very large seas north of 22N through at least Thu.