Tropical Cyclone Discussion

941
WTPA44 PHFO 081434
TCDCP4
 
Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number   8
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Nov 08 2026
 
Pena is producing deep convection near the center, with a trailing, 
broken rain band displaced to the east. The overall convection is 
not very organized and is more pulsing in nature. The low-level 
center remains elongated and is located on the western edge of the 
convection. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates 
have a large range, spanning between 33 and 55 kt. Given this large 
spread, and because there is more convection than this morning, the 
initial intensity is held at 40 kt. A scatterometer pass is expected 
later this morning or early this afternoon, which will help provide 
a better assessment of the system's intensity and wind radii, and 
low-level structure.
 
The storm is moving westward at an estimated 275/7 kt. A generally 
westward motion is expected during the next several days as Pena is 
steered by a low- to mid-level ridge anchored over the central 
Pacific north of the system. This ridge will begin to slide 
eastward, and a northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward 
speed is anticipated through the end of the forecast period. The 
latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and 
lies near the HCCA and GDMI consensus aids.
 
Environmental conditions remain favorable for strengthening, with 
warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, and abundant 
mid-level moisture. However, given the current lack of organization, 
it remains to be seen if the system can consolidate an inner core 
and intensify. There is some uncertainty as to whether the 
circulation will survive or if the system will open up into a 
trough. This is due to the increasing forward speed of the system 
and potentially inhibiting upper-level winds caused by outflow from 
monsoon trough convection to the south. NWP, AI, and regional 
hurricane models are struggling with Pena and showing a wide variety 
of solutions with some models, particularly the regional hurricane 
models, show Pena dissipating before the end of the forecast period. 
The latest NHC forecast maintains the system throughout the forecast 
period for now, holding the intensity steady over the next day or 
so, followed by gradual strengthening and minor fluctuations in 
intensity throughout the remainder of the forecast period. As a 
result of the model spread, there is lower than normal confidence in 
the intensity forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 11.6N 156.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 11.6N 157.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 11.6N 159.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 11.5N 161.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 11.4N 163.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 11.3N 165.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 11.2N 167.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 11.6N 174.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 13.6N 179.7E   45 KT  50 MPH