Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

577
AXNT20 KNHC 080622
TWDAT 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Nov 8 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1003 mb low pressure area is 
located near 27N59W, moving east-northeastward near 7 kt. This 
non-tropical low pressure area is located 405 nm southeast of 
Bermuda, and continues to produce scattered to numerous heavy 
showers and thunderstorms over the E semicircle of the low, from 
20N to 31N between 35W and 59W. The low is forecast to move 
generally east-northeastward over the central subtropical Atlantic
during the next couple of days. Recent satellite scatterometer 
data showed a broad band of near-gale to gale force NE to E winds 
of 30 to 40 kt occurring in the NE quadrant within 240 nm of the
low center. Recent altimeter and buoy data shows seas of 08 to 17
ft occurring within the area of gales and convection. Gale-force 
winds and very rough seas in excess of 12 ft are expected to 
continue to the north of this low center as it moves over parts of
the central subtropical Atlantic through Sun.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and extends SW
to 09N18W. The ITCZ extends from 09N18W to 05N35W to 05N53W. 
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 11N 
between 11W and 50W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front extends from south Florida to 23N88W where it stalls
to 23N95W to the southern Texas coastal waters. Gentle to moderate
NE to E winds are ongoing E of 90W while moderate to fresh ESE
winds are W of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the Bay of
Campeche. Seas are 1 to 4 ft basin-wide.
For the forecast, the front will slowly shift southward across 
the remainder of the basin into early next week. Moderate to fresh
winds will prevail behind the front. High pressure will build in 
the wake of the front, with winds diminishing to gentle to 
moderate speeds. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf 
next Thursday, followed by fresh winds and building seas.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A weak pressure gradient due to the low in the Special Features is
supporting moderate or weaker winds and 3 to 4 ft seas basin-wide.
Otherwise, a line of scattered heavy showers and tstms is moving
across the NE Caribbean associated with the tail of a surface
trough extending NE to the central subtropical Atlantic waters.
Scattered showers prevail offshore E Honduras and NE Nicaragua
due to a lingering surface trough.  
 
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will 
result in moderate or weaker trade winds, along with slight to 
moderate seas, through early next week. Winds will strengthen over
the central Caribbean by Tuesday. 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning.
Aside from the low in Special Features, a cold front extends from
31N17W to 25W30W where it stalls to 26N40W and then transitions to
a warm front that continues to 29N52W. Scattered heavy showers are
ahead of the front N of 20N to the NW coast of Africa. Strong to 
near gale-force SW winds are ahead of the front where seas are 8
to 12 ft, while fresh to strong NNW winds follow the front E of 
35W, where seas are 11 to 15 ft. South of the Special Features
low, winds are fresh to strong to 20N between 45W and 62W, and
seas are rough to 12 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the low pres in the Special Features 
will continue to move east-northeastward through midweek. An area 
of strong to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, 
peaking near 17 ft, will prevail north of the low, impacting the 
waters mainly north of about 27N and east of 60W through late Sun.
Elsewhere, a weakening cold front over the NW waters will 
dissipate Sun.