Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

947
AXPZ20 KNHC 080309
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Nov 8 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0305 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1008 mb low pres 
near 10N86W and to 07N99W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N99W to
11N119W and then from 10N122W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 
13N and east of 97W, and from 08N to 17N and between 109W and 
124W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A strong ridge over the central United States continues to
extend southward into NE Mexico and the Gulf of America. A tight
pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower 
pressures in the deep tropics continues to support fresh to 
strong northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas in these 
waters are 6-8 ft.
Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between a broad subtropical 
ridge west of California and lower pressures across NW Mexico
sustains moderate to locally strong NW winds and seas of 2-4 ft
across much of the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh
northerly winds and seas of 7-11 ft. The highest seas are found 
west of Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, a strong high pressure building over NE Mexico
will support fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of next week. Winds
and seas will diminish quickly thereafter. Meanwhile, a series 
of pulses of moderate to large NW swell will continue to impact 
the Baja California waters into early next week, producing 
periods of rough seas up to 11 ft across the NW zones. Fresh to 
locally strong northerly winds are also expected in the northern 
Gulf of California through Sun morning.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A quasi-stationary low pressure system off Costa Rica and
abundant tropical moisture produce a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms over the offshore waters. These storms are also 
impacting areas from Nicaragua to Panama. Heavy rainfall may lead
to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer 
to your local weather agency and the International Desk at the 
Weather Prediction Center for more details. Moderate to fresh 
cyclonic winds and moderate seas are noted north of 05N and east
of 90W. Locally strong winds are also noted near the areas of 
strong convection. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and 
moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, some development is possible over the next day
or so while the aforementioned low pres system drifts northward.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring areas
of heavy rain to portions of Central America this weekend. Thereafter,
unfavorable environmental conditions should end formation chances
early next week as the system turns westward and moves away from
land. Strong winds and locally rough seas may develop over the next
few days in association with this system. The chance of tropical
cyclone formation over the next 48 hours and through the next 7 
days is low. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong winds will 
pulse in the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama early next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weakening high pressure system centered just north of our
waters continues to support moderate to fresh easterly winds and
rough seas north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. Meanwhile, 
moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 7-10 ft are occurring 
south of 03N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter 
winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is seen south of 04N between 115W and 135W.
For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the area,
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas west of 
120W into early next week. Several pulses of NW swell will impact
the waters north of 10N through the next several days, with 
rough to very rough seas up to 13-15 ft expected across the 
northern waters. Cross-equatorial swell will continue to produce 
rough seas close to the equator, lingering into the middle of 
next week. By midweek, strong winds and very rough seas will 
follow a cold front entering the NW waters, spreading southeastward
over the following days.