Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
837 AXNT20 KNHC 072247 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Nov 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1000 mb low pressure area, Invest AL94, is located near 26N60W, moving east- northeastward near 7 kt. This non- tropical low pressure area is located several hundred miles south- southeast of Bermuda, and continues to produce scattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 31N between 45W-60W. The low could still acquire some subtropical characteristics through tonight before upper-level winds increase on Sunday and begin to weaken the system. The low is forecast to move generally east-northeastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic during the next couple of days. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed a broad band of near- gale to gale force NE to E winds of 30 to 40 kt occurring along and within 210 nm north of a stationary front that extends from 27N63W to 29N59W to 24N37W. Recent altimeter and buoy data shows seas of 10 to 19 ft occurring within this band of winds. Gale- force winds and very rough seas in excess of 12 ft are expected to continue to the north of this low center as it moves over parts of the central subtropical Atlantic through the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html and the latest Tropical weather outlook at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/TWOAT.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends SW to 09N23W. The ITCZ extends from 07N24W to 07N37W, where it is broken by a trough associated with an easterly wave, then resumes from 04N39W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring S of 11N between 22W and 45W, strongest near the easterly wave trough. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida to the SW Gulf near 23N91W then is stationary to 24N96W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are spilling across the NE Gulf, and become moderate NE to E elsewhere north of the front. Gentle to moderate NE winds are also over the Bay of Campeche offshore Yucatan. Seas are 3 to 5 ft NE portions and 3 ft or less elsewhere. For the forecast, a frontal boundary from central Florida to the west central Gulf will slowly shift southward across the remainder of the basin into early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail behind the front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with winds diminishing to gentle to moderate. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf next Thursday, followed by freshening winds and building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An elongated trough extends from the Gulf of Honduras to just offshore of NW Colombia, which is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near and to the south of this feature, with moderate to strong convection near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. Across the eastern Caribbean moderate SE winds across the Windward Islands turn and become SW to W across Puerto Rico and the NE Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail in the NW Caribbean, driven by the pressure gradient between the aforementioned surface trough and high pressure over the US. Due to the weaker pressure gradient over the rest of the region, seas are 4 ft or less across the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will result in moderate or weaker trade winds, along with slight to moderate seas, through early next week. Winds will strengthen over the central Caribbean by Tuesday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning and the potential for subtropical development of Invest AL94. Aside from Invest AL94, a cold front extends from 31N21W to 24N37W, then stalls to 29N59W and then to 27N63W. Scattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms are noted No f20N and E of 35W, as well as from 35W to 45W between 20N and 25N. Strong to near gale- force SW winds are ahead of the front E of 35W, where seas are 10 to 14 ft, while fresh to strong NNW winds follow the front E of 40W, where seas are 9 to 12 ft. South of Invest AL94, winds are fresh to strong from the SW, extending south to 18N between 50W and 70W. For the forecast west of 55W, a 1000 mb low pres centered near 26N60.5W will move east-northeastward. An area of strong to gale- force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking near 17 ft, will prevail north of the low, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N and east of 60W through tonight. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front over the NW waters will dissipate by Sun.