Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

083
AXPZ20 KNHC 072105
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Nov 7 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N88W to 09N92W to 
07N97W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N99W to 07N111W to 11N118W, and
then from 09N123W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 12N and E of 
95W, and from 10N to 16N between 114W and 122W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 05N to 09N between 104W and 
113W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A 1025 mb high pressure system over the central United States
extends a ridge across NE Mexico. A tight pressure gradient 
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep 
tropics supports fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft.
Meanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge west of California sustains
moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 7-11 ft,
confirmed by recent scatterometer data. The highest seas are 
found west of Guadalupe Island. Moderate to locally strong NW 
winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the northern and 
central Gulf of California. Lastly, moderate to locally fresh NW 
winds and moderate seas are noted offshore Jalisco. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, a strong high pressure building over NE Mexico
will support fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of next week. Winds
and seas will diminish quickly thereafter. Meanwhile, a series 
of pulses of moderate to large NW swell will continue to impact 
the Baja California waters into early next week, producing 
periods of rough seas up to 12 ft across the NW zones. Fresh to 
locally strong northerly winds are also expected in the northern 
Gulf of California through Sun morning.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A broad area of low pressure centered off Costa Rica continues to
produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the offshore
waters. These storms are also impacting areas from Nicaragua to 
Panama. Heavy rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding 
and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the 
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more 
details. Moderate to fresh cyclonic winds and moderate seas are 
noted north of 04N and east of 90W. Locally strong winds are 
also noted near the areas of strong convection. Elsewhere, 
moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, environmental conditions are marginally
conducive for further development of the broad low offshore 
Costa Rica over the next day or two, but strong upper-level winds
are forecast to end formation chances early next week. However, 
this system is expected to bring areas of heavy rain to portions 
of Central America through the weekend. The chance of tropical 
cyclone formation over the next 48 hours and through the next 7 
days is low. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong winds will 
pulse in the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama early next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Broad ridging across the Eastern Pacific supports moderate to 
fresh NE-E winds and rough seas north of 10N and west of 120W. 
Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 7-10 ft are 
occurring south of 03N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, moderate or 
lighter winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is seen S of 03N between 115W and 135W.
For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the area,
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas west of 
120W into early next week. Several pulses of NW swell will impact
the waters north of 10N through the next several days, with 
rough to very rough seas up to 13-15 ft expected across the 
northern waters. Cross-equatorial swell will continue to produce 
rough seas close to the equator, lingering into the middle of 
next week. By midweek, strong winds and very rough seas will 
follow a cold front entering the NW waters, spreading 
southeastward over the following days.