Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
284 AXNT20 KNHC 071642 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Nov 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1620 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1000 mb low pressure area, Invest AL94, is located near 26N61W this morning, moving east- northeastward near 7 kt. This non- tropical low pressure area is located several hundred miles south- southeast of Bermuda, and continues to produce scattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 31N between 47W-60W. The low could still acquire some subtropical characteristics through tonight before upper-level winds increase on Sunday and begin to weaken the system. The low is forecast to move generally east-northeastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic during the next couple of days. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed a broad band of near- gale to gale force NE to E winds of 30 to 40 kt occurring along and within 210 nm north of a stationary front that drapes across the low center, from 26.5N47W to 28.5N59W to 27N64W. Recent altimeter and buoy data shows seas of 10 to 19 ft occurring within this band of winds. Gale-force winds and very rough seas in excess of 12 ft are expected to continue to the north of this low center as it moves over parts of the central subtropical Atlantic through the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html and the latest Tropical weather outlook at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/TWOAT.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12.5N17W and extends SW to 09N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N24W to 06N38W, then resumes from 04N42W to 02N51W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring S of 11.5N between 29W and 41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from near Venice, Florida to the SW Gulf near 23N93W then is stationary to 25N97W. A dry and reinforcing cold front moving into the NE Gulf directly behind the front is now ill defined and is merging with the leading front. A few small clusters of moderate convection are along the front over center and NW portions of this basin. Otherwise, skies are fair. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are spilling across the NE Gulf, and become moderate NE to E elsewhere north of the front. Gentle to moderate NE winds are also over the Bay of Campeche offshore Yucatan. Seas are 3 to 5 ft NE portions and 3 ft or less elsewhere. For the forecast, the frontal boundary from central Florida to the west central Gulf will slowly shift across the remainder of the basin into early next week, as high pressure builds across the basin. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Invest6 AL94, south of Bermuda and E of the Bahamas, continues to disrupt the trade wind flow across the Caribbean basin. An elongated trough extends from the Gulf of Honduras to just offshore of NE Colombia, which is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near and to the south of this feature. Across the eastern Caribbean moderate SE winds across the Windward Islands turn anticyclonically and become SW to W across Puerto Rico and the NE Caribbean. Due to the weak pressure gradient over the region caused by low center S of Bermuda, seas are 4 ft or less across the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will result in moderate or weaker trade winds, along with slight to moderate seas, through early next week. Easterly winds will return to the basin by late Mon and strengthen over the central Caribbean by Tuesday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning and the potential for subtropical development of Invest AL94. Aside from Invest AL94, a cold front extends from 31N25W to 24N42W, then stalls to 28.5N59W to 27N64W. Scattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms are noted from 20N to 31N between 47W-60W. Strong to near gale- force SW winds are ahead of the front E of 35W, where seas are 10 to 14 ft, while fresh to strong NNW winds follow the front E of 36W. where seas are 9 to 12 ft. South of Invest AL94, winds are fresh to strong from the SW, extending south to 20N between 50W and 66W. For the forecast west of 55W, Invest AL94 will drift slowly east- northeastward. A second low may develop east of this low today. The lows will merge over the eastern waters late in the weekend, then shift east of the area by early next week. An area of strong to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking near 16 ft, will prevail north of the lows, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N and east of 65W through tonight. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front has entered the waters between Florida and 75W. The front will dissipate by Sun.