Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

464
AXPZ20 KNHC 071514
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Nov 7 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 09N91W and then to 
06N98W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N99W to 11N117W and then from 
09N122W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is observed from 04N to 12N and E of 95W, as well as 
from 04N to 09N between 101W and 115W, and from 03N to 13N and W 
of 126W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A 1026 mb high pressure system over the central United States
extends a ridge across NE Mexico. A tight pressure gradient 
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep 
tropics supports fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft.
Meanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge west of California sustains
moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 7-11 ft. 
The highest seas are found west of Guadalupe Island. Moderate to 
locally strong NW winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the 
northern and central Gulf of California. Lastly, moderate to 
locally fresh NW winds and moderate seas are noted offshore 
Jalisco. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, a strong high pressure building over NE Mexico
will support fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of next week. Winds
and seas will diminish quickly thereafter. Meanwhile, a series 
of pulses of moderate to large NW swell will continue to impact 
the Baja California waters into early next week, producing 
periods of rough seas up to 12 ft across the NW zones. Fresh to 
locally strong northerly winds are also expected in the northern 
Gulf of California through Sun morning.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A broad area of low pressure centered off Costa Rica continues to
produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the offshore
waters. These storms are also impacting areas from Nicaragua to 
Panama. Heavy rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding 
and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the 
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more 
details. Fresh to locally strong cyclonic winds and moderate 
seas are noted north of 04N and east of 90W. Gusty and erratic 
winds are also noted near the areas of strong convection. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, environmental conditions are marginally
conducive for further development of the low offshore Costa Rica 
over the next day or two, but strong upper-level winds are 
forecast to end formation chances early next week. However, this 
system is expected to bring areas of heavy rain to portions of 
Central America through the weekend. The chance of tropical 
cyclone formation over the next 48 hours and through the next 7 
days is low. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong winds will 
pulse in the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama early next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1022 mb high pressure system centered north of the area 
supports moderate to fresh NE-E winds and rough seas north of 10N
and west of 120W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas
of 7-10 ft are occurring south of 03N and east of 120W. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the area,
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas west of 
120W into early next week. Several pulses of NW swell will impact
the waters north of 10N through the next several days, with 
rough to very rough seas up to 13-15 ft expected across the 
northern waters. Cross-equatorial swell will continue to produce 
rough seas close to the equator, lingering into the middle of 
next week. By midweek, strong winds and very rough seas will 
follow a cold front entering the NW waters, spreading 
southeastward over the following days.