Tropical Cyclone Discussion
359 WTPA44 PHFO 071436 TCDCP4 Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number 4 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP042026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sat Nov 07 2026 Tropical Storm Pena appears somewhat better organized on the latest infrared satellite imagery, with persistent convective banding and potentially an incipient central dense overcast feature located near the suspected low-level center. This improvement in structure appears to have not yet resulted in intensification, with the objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates tightly clustered around 45 kt. The cyclone is currently moving westward at 275/11 kt, and this general motion is forecast to continue through the forecast period as Pena is steered by a large low- to mid-level ridge located to its north. The track guidance is in good agreement and the new forecast blends the previous one toward the latest Google DeepMind and HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). Between 96 h and 120 h, Pena is forecast to accelerate and turn toward the northwest in response to an approaching upper-level shortwave trough. The environment around and ahead of Pena is not horrible, but it is certainly not the best. In the short term, Pena is forecast to intensify somewhat as it moves across favorable sea surface temperatures and through a region of low vertical wind shear with sufficient mid-level moisture. Beyond 24 h, there are some indications that Pena could be contending with dry air intrusions and unfavorable upper-level winds, both of which would slow or limit intensification. There continues to be a large spread in the intensity guidance, with the ECMWF and SHIPS models insisting on slow intensification through the forecast period, Google DeepMind showing nearly no change in strength, and the GFS and regional hurricane models showing imminent weakening and even dissipation. In the absence of higher confidence, the new intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one, except to show Pena intensifying to 55 kt at 12 h based on recent satellite trends and the aforementioned favorable short-term environment. The new forecast remains near the middle of the larger than normal guidance envelope, and is again of lower than normal confidence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 11.4N 153.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 11.5N 154.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 11.4N 156.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 11.4N 157.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 11.3N 159.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 11.3N 161.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 11.5N 163.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 11.6N 168.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 13.0N 174.8W 65 KT 75 MPH