Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

487
AXPZ20 KNHC 070857
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Nov 7 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0835 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N86W and to 06N99W. 
The ITCZ stretches from 06N99W to 09N117W and then from 09N120W
to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is observed from 03N to 13N and east of 99W. Similar 
convection is noted from 03N to 14N and west of 109W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A 1025 mb high pressure system over the central United States is
building southward across NE Mexico. A tight pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep
tropics supports fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, and these winds are spreading downstream. This was 
confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these 
waters are 6-9 ft.
Meanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge centered west of California 
sustains moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 7-11 
ft. The highest seas are found west of Guadalupe Island. Moderate to 
locally strong NW winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the 
northern and central Gulf of California. Lastly, moderate to locally 
fresh NW winds and moderate seas are noted off Jalisco and 
Michoacan. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, a strong high pressure building over NE Mexico
will support fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of next week. Winds
and seas will diminish quickly thereafter. Meanwhile, a series 
of pulses of moderate to large NW swell will continue to impact 
the Baja California waters into early next week, producing 
periods of rough seas up to 12 ft across the NW zones. Fresh to 
locally strong northerly winds are also expected in the northern 
Gulf of California through Sun morning.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A broad area of low pressure centered off Costa Rica continues to
produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the offshore
waters. These storms are also impacting areas from Nicaragua to 
Panama. Heavy rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding 
and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the 
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more 
details. Moderate to locally fresh cyclonic winds and moderate seas 
are noted north of 04N and east of 91W. A partial scatterometer
satellite pass captured these winds. Stronger winds are also
noted near the areas of strong convection. Elsewhere, moderate 
or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, environmental conditions are marginally
conducive for further development through Sunday, but strong 
upper-level winds are forecast to end formation chances early 
next week. However, this system is expected to bring areas of 
heavy rain to portions of Central America through the weekend. The 
chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours and 
through the next 7 days is low. Looking ahead, fresh to locally 
strong winds will pulse in the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama early 
next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1024 mb high pressure system centered north of the area 
supports moderate to fresh NE-E winds and rough seas north of 10N
and west of 120W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer
satellite pass. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas 
of 7-9 ft are occurring south of 03N and east of 120W. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the area,
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas west of 
120W into early next week. Several pulses of NW swell will impact
the waters north of 10N through the next several days, with 
rough to very rough seas expected across the northern waters. 
Cross-equatorial swell will continue to produce rough seas close 
to the equator, lingering into the middle of next week. By 
midweek, strong winds and rough to very rough seas will follow a 
cold front entering the NW waters, spreading southeastward over 
the next several days.