Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

300
AXPZ20 KNHC 070300
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Nov 7 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0235 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to a 1007 mb low pres near
10N88W to a 07N90W to a 1007 mb low pres near 10N117W to 08N125W.
The ITCZ stretches from 08N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to
13N and east of 93W. Similar convection is noted from 05N to 15N
and west of 109W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A broad subtropical ridge centered west of California supports 
moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 7-10 ft.
The highest seas are found west of Guadalupe Island. Meanwhile,
fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to locally strong NW winds and
seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the northern and central Gulf of 
California. Lastly, moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas are 
noted off Jalisco and Michoacan. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, a strong high pressure building over NE Mexico
will support fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of next week. Winds
and seas will diminish by late next week. Meanwhile, a series of
pulses of moderate to large NW swell will continue to impact the
Baja California waters into early next week, producing periods 
of rough seas up to 12 ft across the NW zones. Fresh to locally 
strong northerly winds are also expected in the northern Gulf of 
California tonight through Sun morning.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A broad area of low pressure centered off Costa Rica continues to
produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the offshore
waters. These storms are also impacting areas from Nicaragua to 
Panama. Heavy rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding 
and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the 
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more 
details. Moderate to locally fresh cyclonic winds and moderate seas 
are noted north of 04N and east of 93W.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, environmental conditions impacting the area of low 
pressure located offshore of Central America will remain marginally 
conducive for further development through the weekend, but strong 
upper-level winds are forecast to end formation chances early next 
week. The chance tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours 
and through the next 7 days is low. Regardless of development, this 
system is expected to bring areas of heavy rain to portions of 
Central America through the weekend. Looking ahead, fresh to locally 
strong winds will pulse in the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama early 
next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1026 mb high pressure system centered north of the area
supports moderate to fresh NE-E winds and rough seas north of 10N
and west of 110W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas
of 6-8 ft are occurring south of 03N and east of 120W. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the area,
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas west of 
120W into early next week. Several pulses of NW swell will impact
the waters north of 10N through the next several days, with 
rough to very rough seas to 12 ft and greater expected across the
northern waters. Cross-equatorial swell will continue to produce
rough seas close to the equator, lingering into the middle of 
next week. By midweek, strong winds and rough to very rough seas
will follow a cold front entering the NW waters, spreading 
southeastward over the next several days.