Tropical Cyclone Discussion

792
WTPA44 PHFO 070241
TCDCP4
 
Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number   2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Fri Nov 06 2026

Satellite imagery over the last several hours suggests that while 
deep convection has weakened some around Pena's core, strong banding 
persists well away from the cyclone's center. The latest subjective 
Dvorak intensity estimate from HFO rated the storm at 2.5/35 kt, but 
with a Data T of 3.0/45 kt. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS also 
range from 37-41 kt. Based on Pena's satellite presentation, the 
initial intensity is held at 40 kt. 

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/10 kt. Pena 
is expected to keep moving westward over the next several days as it 
is steered by a high pressure ridge centered over the central 
Pacific. Track guidance generally exhibits good agreement on Pena's 
motion through most of the forecast period, depicting a turn to the 
west-northwest by the middle of next week as the ridge slightly 
weakens. The latest NHC track forecast generally follows a blend of 
HCCA and GDMI guidance, reflecting a slight poleward shift in the 
long-range track compared to the previous advisory. 

Gradual intensification is forecast for Pena as its surrounding 
environment is characterized by low vertical wind shear, anomalously 
warm SSTs, and ample mid-level moisture. In fact, SHIPS guidance 
from the GFS suggests a 48 percent chance of rapid intensification 
in 24 hours, reflecting the storm's favorable environment. Intensity 
guidance on average shows a upward trend compared to the previous 
advisory, so the latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted higher 
to better depict this guidance over the forecast period.  In a 
couple of days, the vertical wind shear forecasts are more 
uncertain, with some shear potentially undercutting the outflow 
layer. Thus the forecast is leveled off, with model solutions 
ranging from upper-end tropical storm to category 2 hurricane.  
Confidence is increasing that the cyclone will undergo, at the very 
least, gradual strengthening during the next few days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 11.2N 151.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 11.4N 152.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 11.3N 154.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 11.3N 156.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 11.3N 158.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 11.3N 160.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 11.4N 161.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 11.7N 165.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 12.8N 171.9W   65 KT  75 MPH