Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
212 AXNT20 KNHC 062327 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Nov 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1003 mb low pressure area, Invest AL94, is located near 25N64.5W, with a cold front extending from the low east-northeastward across the basin to 31N34W. High pressure is centered north of these features over the NW Atlantic. The resultant pressure gradient is producing fresh to near gale- force NE to E winds across the north semicircle of the low east of 69W, and extending eastward, north of the cold front, to 40W, per recent satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 8 to 15 ft within these winds. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also noted in the same region while numerous moderate to strong convection is north of 20N between 47W and 62W. The chances of this low acquiring subtropical characteristics are decreasing due to strong upper-level winds that are expected to persist over the system into the weekend. The low is forecast to move generally eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic during the next couple of days and become absorbed by a new non-tropical low pressure system to its east later this weekend. Regardless, gale-force winds are likely to develop across the northern semicircle of the low this evening, and then along the cold front Sat through Sun morning, as the low tracks slowly eastward. For more information, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html and the latest Tropical weather outlook at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/TWOEP.html for more details. Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the aforementioned cold front and an eastern Atlantic high pressure ridge S of 20N between 30W and 60W is supporting near-gale to gale force SW to W winds from 25N to 27.5N between 33W and 39W. Seas within these winds are 8 to 11 ft. A non-tropical low is forecast to develop across this area tonight and move eastward, accompanied by near-gale to gale force SW winds. By Sat 12Z near- gale to gale force winds will prevail north of 26.5N between 21W and 25W. Peak seas to around 14 ft will likely occur late tonight and Sat morning. Conditions will improve Sat evening and the system move north of the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html for more information Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Middle-level troughing over the SW Caribbean and upper level divergence over Central America and into the tropical eastern Pacific will interact with enhanced low-level moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over the next few days. This will favor heavy precipitation developing across Central America through at least Saturday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across Nicaragua and Costa Rica, which may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15.5W and extends to 08.5N18W, where it transitions to ITCZ, continuing on to 08N30W to 05.5N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 11N between 24W and 41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A front has become stationary from the Florida Panhandle near 31N84W and continues southwestward to 25.5N91W to 26N96W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 22N to 26.5N and west of 94W. Gentle N to NE winds prevail north of the front. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient supports mainly light to gentle winds, with slight seas basin-wide. For the forecast, the front will slowly shift across the basin into early next week as high pressure builds north of the front. Mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The broad low pressure across the western Atlantic the past few days has completely disrupted the trade wind flow across the Caribbean basin. Over the NE part of the basin, a deep- layered trough is supporting scattered to numerous moderate convection N of 14.5N between 70W and the Anegada Passage. Light to gentle S to SW winds prevail across the area. Broad cyclonic flow generally dominates the rest of the basin. A surface trough is supporting scattered convection from 15N to 19N and west of 80W, where 1009 mb low pressure is anaylzed near 15N82W. Light to gentle cyclonic winds prevail W of 70W, except stronger in convection. Seas are 1 to 3 ft E portions and 2 to 5 ft W portions. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will result in moderate or weaker winds, with slight to moderate seas, through early next week. Easterly winds will begin to return to the basin Monday and strengthen over the central Caribbean Tuesday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on the Gale Warnings and the potential for subtropical development of Invest AL94. A stationary front extends from 31N34W to near Invest AL94. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is depicted north of 22N between 28W and 63W. Aside from the Gale Warnings moderate to fresh winds along with seas 5 to 8 ft previal N of the front to 75W. To the south of Invest AL94, fresh SW to W winds prevail between 50W and 70W and become N to NE across the central and SE Bahamas. Farther east, a ridge extends south of the front through 20N35W to the central Lesser Antilles. gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds generally prevail there, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in N swell. Elsewhere, gentle or lighter winds and seas 4 to 5 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the 1003 mb low pres near 25N64.5W, Invest AL94, will drift slowly move east-northeastward. A second low may develop east of this low by Sat. The lows will merge over the eastern waters late in the weekend, then shift east of the area by early next week. An area of strong to gale- force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking near 15 ft, will persist north of the lows, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N and east of 65W through Sat night. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front will move across the waters between Florida and 75W tonight, then dissipate by Sun.