Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
303 AXPZ20 KNHC 062100 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Nov 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure Offshore Central America and Associated Heavy Rainfall Potential: Abundant tropical moisture associated with the monsoonal circulation across the region, and favorable conditions aloft, will continue to result in numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms persisting across the regional waters N of 05N and E of 91W, and will affect parts of Central America. The heaviest precipitation during the past 6 hours hours has occurred across portions of Panama, NW Costa Rica, coastal Nicaragua, and the adjacent Pacific waters. This rainfall is expected to continue this afternoon across Nicaragua and Costa Rica and may continue through the weekend. At the surface, satellite data suggests that a 1009 mb surface low is along the monsoon trough near 10.5N89W, with peak winds of 20 kt. The low is expected to drift east-northeastward this afternoon and tonight, which may enhance rainfall across Nicaragua and Costa Rico. A tropical depression could still form over the weekend when the low begins to drift slowly westward and offshore. Upper- level winds should prevent further development after the weekend. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website - https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. Regardless of tropical development, heavy rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more details on rainfall potential. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 11.5N84.5W to low pressure near 10.5N89W 1009 mb to 07N100W to low pressure near 10.5N116.5W 1011 mb to 08.5N122.5W. The ITCZ stretches from 08.5N122.5W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 13N and east of 95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 03N and east of 85W, south of 01N between 118W and 135W, and from 09N to 13.5N west of 114W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1028 mb high pressure system near 33N135W extends a ridge southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, while elongated low pressure prevails across the Gulf of California and the Baja California Peninsula. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate N to NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, with locally fresh winds near Punta Eugenia. Northwesterly swell is producing seas of 6-8 ft in these waters, except to 9 ft NW and W of Isla Guadalupe. Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail inside the northern Gulf of California, with light and variable winds across southern portions. Moderate or weaker W to NW winds and slight to moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters. However, fresh northerly gap winds have commenced across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, a series of pulses of moderate to large NW swell will continue to impact the Baja California waters into early next week, producing periods of rough seas up to 12 ft across the NW zones. Meanwhile, a tightening pressure gradient will result in fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting this evening and continuing into early next week. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are also expected in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Sun morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see Special Features section above for information on low pressure offshore Nicaragua that has potential for tropical development, and contributing to the heavy rainfall threat over portions of Central America. A broad area of low pressure is centered over the eastern Tropical Pacific waters east of 94W and extends into Central America. A 1009 mb low center is offshore of Nicaragua and El Salvador near 10.5N89W, and is drifting east-northeastward. Abundant tropical moisture is entrained in this monsoonal circulation, and is resulting in numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms across the regional waters from the coastal waters of Colombia to El Salvador. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed mostly gentle to moderate cyclonic winds N of 10N, and gentle to moderate SW to W winds south of 10N and into coastal Colombia. Fresh SW winds were noted across the outer waters west of 87W. Seas are 4-7 ft in SW swell across these waters, except higher near thunderstorms. For the forecast, aside from the low pressure area with potential for tropical cyclone formation, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail into early next week, as the low pressure meanders offshore of Nicaragua and El Salvador through the weekend. Winds may increase to fresh offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo and Nicaragua Sat night through Sun as the low begins to shift westward away from the coast. Heavy rainfall remains the most significant impact across both the regional waters and land areas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned subtropical ridge centered north of the area and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in fresh to locally strong NE to E winds from 10N to 28N and west of 120W. NW swell moving through these waters is producing seas of 8-11 ft. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are present in the waters south of the equator and west of 105W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail. For the forecast, moderate to locally strong trades will prevail over the west-central waters through today, followed by moderate to fresh winds west of 120W into early next week. Several pulses of NW swell will impact the waters north of 10N through the next several days, with rough to very rough seas to 12 ft and greater expected across the northern waters. Cross- equatorial swell will continue to produce rough seas close to the equator over the next several days, possibly lingering into early next week.