Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
214 AXNT20 KNHC 061745 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Nov 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1003 mb low pressure area, located near 25N65W, is producing fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds in the north semicircle, extending to 30N and between 52W and 68W per recent scatterometer satellite data. Seas are 8 to 13 ft within these winds. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also noted in the same region while numerous moderate to strong convection is north of 18N between 50W and 65W. The chances of this low acquiring subtropical characteristics are decreasing due to strong upper-level winds that are expected to persist over the system into the weekend. The low is forecast to move generally eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic during the next couple of days and become absorbed by a new non-tropical low pressure system to its east later this weekend. Regardless, gale-force winds are likely over parts of the central subtropical Atlantic through the weekend. For more information, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html and the latest Tropical weather outlook at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/TWOEP.html for more details. Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between frontal boundaries north of 25N and high pressure over the central Atlantic is supporting near- gale to gale force winds from 25N to 26N between 33W and 39W. Seas between these winds are 8 to 10 ft. Another non tropical low is forecast to develop near this area tonight and move eastward accompanied by near- gale to gale force winds. By Sat 12Z near- gale to gale force winds will prevail north of 26.5N between 21W and 25W. Peak seas to around 14 ft will likely occur late tonight and Sat morning. Conditions will improve Sat evening and the system move north of the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html for more information Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Middle-level troughing over the SW Caribbean and upper level divergence over Central America and into the tropical eastern Pacific will interact with enhanced low-level moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation developing across Central America through at least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across Nicaragua and Costa Rica, which may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15.5W and extends to 07N22W. The ITCZ extends from 07N22W to 05N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 10N between 22W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N84W and continues southwestward to 27N89W, then it extends as a stationary front to a 1012 mb low near 27N97W. Scattered moderate convection is find north of 23N and west of 92W. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient support mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas basin-wide. For the forecast, the front will slowly shift across the basin into early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is supporting scattered convection from 15N to 19N and west of 81W. Scattered showers are also occurring south south of Jamaica, over the central Caribbean. Over the NE part of the basin a deep-layered trough is supporting scattered moderate convection from Puerto Rico to 70W. Gentle to moderate NE winds are present over the western Caribbean. Over the eastern Caribbean, SE to S gentle to moderate winds are also present. Elsewhere, gentle or lighter winds prevail. Seas 2 to 4 ft prevail across the entire basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will result in moderate or weaker trade winds, along with slight to moderate seas, through early next week. Winds will strengthen over the central Caribbean by Tuesday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on the Gale Warnings and the potential for subtropical development of Invest AL94. A stationary front extends from 29N31W to near Invest AL94. Another cold front enters the area near 31N36.5W and extends to 30N51W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is depicted north of 23N between 23W and 50W. Aside from the Gale Warnings moderate to fresh winds along with seas 5 to 8 ft previal near these fronts. Farther east, a dissipating cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N22W and extends southwestward to 26N28W. Elsewhere, gentle or lighter winds and seas 4 to 5 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the 1003 mb low pres centered near 25N65W will drift today then slowly move east-northeastward. A second low may develop east of this low tonight into Sat. The lows will merge over the eastern waters late in the weekend, then shift east of the area by early next week. An area of strong to gale- force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking near 15 ft, will prevail north of the lows, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front will move across the waters between Florida and 75W today, then dissipate by Sat.