Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
913 AXPZ20 KNHC 061537 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Nov 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Abundant tropical moisture associated with the monsoonal circulation across the region, and divergence aloft will continue to result in numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms persisting across the regional waters N of 05N and E of 90W, and will affect parts of Central America. The heaviest precipitation during the overnight and morning hours has occurred across portions of Panama, NW Costa Rica and coastal Nicaragua, and is expected to continue today across Nicaragua and Costa Rica. This overall weather pattern will persist over the next few days. Heavy rainfall may lead to life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more details. Low pressure offshore Nicaragua: A broad area of low pressure offshore of Central America, associated with the weather pattern described above, is producing a disorganized area of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. A tropical depression could still form over the weekend while the low drifts slowly offshore. Upper- level winds should prevent further development after the weekend. This system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through the weekend. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W to 11.5N89W to 10N109W to 08.5N126W. The ITCZ stretches from 08.5N126W to beyond 08.5N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 14N and east of 95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 04N and east of 89W, south of 01N between 118W and 136W, and from 07N to 11.5N west of 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1026 mb high pressure system near 33N135W extends a ridge southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, while elongated low pressure prevails across the Gulf of California and the Baja California Peninsula. Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed moderate northerly winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, with fresh winds across Bahia de Sebastian Vizcaino to near Punta Eugenia. Northwesterly swell is producing seas of 6-8 ft in these waters, except to 9 ft NW and W of Isla Guadalupe. Gentle to moderate mainly northerly winds prevail inside the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell prevail. For the forecast, a series of pulses of NW swell will continue to impact the Baja California waters into early next week, producing periods of rough seas up to 12 ft across the NW zones. Meanwhile, a tightening pressure gradient will result in fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting this evening and continuing into early next week. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are also forecast in the northern Gulf of California this weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see Special Features section above for information on low pressure offshore Nicaragua that has potential for tropical development, and con tributing to the heavy rainfall threat over portions of Central America. A broad area of low pressure is centered over the waters of Central America, offshore of Nicaragua and El Salvador. Abundant tropical moisture is entrained in this monsoonal circulation, and is resulting in numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms across the regional waters from the coastal waters of Colombia to El Salvador. This morning, the strongest rainfall is affecting the near and offshore waters of Nicaragua and NW Costa Rica, including coastal sections there, y waters. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed mostly gentle to moderate cyclonic winds N of 10N, and gentle to moderate SW to W winds south of 10N and into coastal Colombia. Fresh SW winds were noted across the outer waters west of 88W. Seas are 4-7 ft in SW swell across these waters, except higher near thunderstorms. For the forecast, aside from the low pressure area with tropical cyclone formation potential, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail into early next week, as the low pressure meanders offshore of Nicaragua and El Salvador through the weekend. Winds may pulse to moderate to fresh offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo and in the Gulf of Panama early next week. Heavy rainfall remains the most significant impact across both the regional waters and land areas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned subtropical ridge centered north of the area and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in fresh to locally strong NE to E winds north of 10N and west of 120W. NW swell moving through these waters is producing seas of 8-12 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 30N140W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are present in the waters south of the equator. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and seas of 6-8 ft are evident. For the forecast, moderate to locally strong trades will prevail over the west-central waters through today, followed by moderate to fresh winds into early next week. Several pulses of NW swell will impact the waters north of 10N through the next several days, with rough to very rough seas to 12 ft and greater expected across the northern waters. Cross- equatorial swell will continue to produce rough seas close to the equator over the next several days, possibly lingering into early next week.