Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

752
AXPZ20 KNHC 051917
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Nov 5 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1910 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing 
over the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across
northern portions of Central America and into the tropical
eastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- 
level moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over
the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation 
developing across Central America starting today and lasting 
through at least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected 
across Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation 
occurring through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life- 
threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your 
local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather 
Prediction Center for more details.
Low pressure offshore Nicaragua: A broad area of low pressure
offshore of Central America is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms that remain disorganized. Gradual development 
of this system is still possible during the next several days, 
and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the 
low drifts slowly offshore of the Central America coast. 
Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy
rain to portions of Central America through this weekend. This 
system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the 
next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at website:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from across the border of Nicaragua
and Costa Rica to near the Gulf of Papagayo at 11N86W to broad
1008 mb low pressure near 10.5N91.5W to 07.5N100W to 09N111W to
1011 mb low pressure near 07N115W to 05N120W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N120W to 08N140W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate 
to strong convection is noted from 03.4S to 14N between 77W and
94W, from 03.4S to 13N between 103W and 123W, and north of the
ITCZ to 14N between 125W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Large NW swell with seas to rough are impacting the Baja
California waters, highest well offshore of Baja Norte. Moderate
seas prevail across the remainder of the waters, except slight in
the Gulf of California. Moderate or weaker winds dominate the
offshore waters.
For the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to 
impact the Baja California waters through the next several days 
with seas to rough heights. Fresh winds will pulse in the 
northern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes starting Fri
and continue through the weekend, locally strong in the northern
Gulf of California. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will 
develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a cold front moves into the
SW Gulf of America with these winds persisting through early 
next week. Expect locally rough seas with these winds.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Please see Special Features section above for information on low
pressure offshore Nicaragua that has potential for tropical 
development as well as a heavy rainfall threat over portions of 
Central America.
A zone of moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds is noted in the SE
semicircle of the low offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo. 
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds dominate with moderate seas.
For the forecast, other than the low pressure area with tropical
cyclone formation potential, gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas will prevail into early next week. Winds may pulse
to moderate to fresh offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo and in the
Gulf of Panama by Tue night.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure building in from the
north and lower pressure along the monsoon trough is leading to 
widespread fresh NE to E winds across waters north of the 
monsoon trough and west of 125W, locally strong from 10N to 24N 
to the west of 129W. Long period NW swell and wind-waves are 
combining to create rough seas over the same area, with rough NW
swell surrounding and covering the waters north of 10N and west
of 118W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas
prevail, building to rough in the south-central waters.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the
west-central waters through the end of the week, locally strong
into the weekend until the gradient relaxes some. Several sets of
NW swell will impact the waters north of 10N through the next
several days, with rough seas expected. Merging SE and NW swells 
are likely to produce rough seas close to the equator for the end
of the week and into the upcoming weekend, possibly lingering 
into early next week.