Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
674 AXNT20 KNHC 050940 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Nov 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Latest scatterometer satellite pass confirmed winds to gale force south of Bermuda, between 1023 mb high pressure centered north of Bermuda near 38N63W, and 1007 mb low pressure near 27N65W. Strong to near-gale force winds are noted from 27N to 31N between 55W and 70W, with associated seas ranging from 8 ft to 13 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also active in this area. Environmental conditions could support this system gradually acquiring subtropical characteristics through this weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. Chances of this development remain low through 48 hours, and medium through the next seven days. Regardless of such development, the area of winds and seas will expand as the low shifts eastward, with gale force wind and very rough seas will expand eastward north of 25N reaching as far east as 45W by early Mon. Winds and seas start to diminish thereafter, as environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing over the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across northern portions of Central America and into the tropical eastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- level moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation developing across Central America starting today and lasting through at least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation occurring through today. Heavy rainfall may lead to life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from 11N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ extends from 08N20W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N and E of 47W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front reaches from Gulfport, MS to Tampico, Mexico. 1014 mb high pressure is over the eastern and central Gulf, centered near 26N86W. This pattern is supporting light breezes and 1-3 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast, the frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate today. Moderate northwest to north winds prevail west of the front. The next cold front is expected to move across the Gulf waters this weekend. Near gale NW winds are expected in the SW Gulf Sun night and Mon west of the front. Fresh to strong north winds will develop elsewhere west of the front on Sun through early next week as it moves east across the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cluster of thunderstorms is active southeast of Jamaica. Scattered thunderstorms are also active across the southern approaches to the Windward Passage. Broad 1009 mb low pressure near Grand Cayman Island is along a surface trough at 82W from 17N and 20N. This pattern is supporting light breezes and 1-3 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin supporting moderate trade winds, along with moderate seas. The pressure gradient will further loosen across the area tonight. This will diminish the moderate trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. Elsewhere, a cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N28W to 26N38W, then continues as stationary to 27N49W. Farther south, a trough reaches from 19N27W to 13N31W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 4-6 ft combined seas in N swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure will drift through Fri, then slowly move east-northeastward during the weekend. An area of strong to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking near 14 ft, has developed north of the low pres and will expand eastward through Sun, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N. The gale- force winds will likely be north of 29N through the end of the week. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front will move across the waters between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night, then dissipate Sat and Sat night.