Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

009
AXPZ20 KNHC 050332
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Nov 5 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing 
over the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across
northern portions of Central America and into the tropical
eastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- 
level moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over
the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation 
developing across Central America starting today and lasting 
through at least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected 
across Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation 
occurring through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life- 
threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your 
local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather 
Prediction Center for more details.
Eastern East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of 
Central America. Gradual development of this system is possible 
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form 
by this weekend while the low drifts northward. Regardless of 
development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions 
of Central America through this weekend.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 05N115W to beyond
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 13N
between 77W and 98W, from 03S to 09N between 106W and 124W, from
07W to 11N between 126W and 134W, and from 08N to 20N between
137W and 140W. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh NW winds are present in the offshore waters of Baja 
California north of Cabo San Lazaro due to high pressure 
building SE toward the region. Seas in these waters are 7 to 9 
ft. Elsewhere, across the Mexican offshore waters, light to 
gentle winds prevail, with moderate seas in mainly SW swell, 
mixed with NW swell west of 110W, and except for the Gulf of 
California, where slight seas dominate.
For the forecast, high pressure west of Baja California will 
maintain a ridge across the region, supporting fresh NW winds 
across the Baja Norte waters through tonight. Large NW swell will
impact the Baja waters into Thu night. The next pulse of large 
NW swell will reach the Baja waters beginning Fri. Fresh winds 
will pulse in the northern Gulf of California and near Cabo 
Corrientes starting Fri afternoon and continue through the 
weekend. Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will 
develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night, increasing Sun 
night as a cold front moves into the SW Gulf of America, with 
gales possible Mon night. A set of large and rough NW swell may 
approach Baja California Mon. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
See Special Features section above for information on low
pressure offshore Nicaragua that has potential for tropical
development as well as heavy rainfall threat over portions of
Central America.
A broad zone of moderate to locally fresh S winds is noted ESE 
of this low, along with scattered moderate convection. Locally 
rough seas are possible there as well. The winds and convection 
extends southward to near the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, winds
are light to gentle, with moderate seas.
For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure offshore 
Central America has the possibility of gradual development during
the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by 
this weekend while the low drifts northward. Regardless of 
development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to 
portions of Central America through this weekend. There is a 
medium chance of tropical formation over the next 48 hours. 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The low pressure, Invest CP95, that is along the monsoon trough
W of 140W has moved farther W away from the region and no further
impacts are anticipated in the eastern Pacific in association 
with it. 
The pressure gradient between high pressure building in from the
north and lower pressure along the monsoon trough is leading to 
widespread moderate to fresh NE to E winds across waters N of the
monsoon trough and west of 120W, locally strong near 15N140W. 
Long period NW swell and wind-waves are combining to create rough
seas over the same area. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds 
prevail, with moderate seas
For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the
west-central waters, locally strong through the end of the week.
Meanwhile, NW swell will continue spreading through the region 
through tonight, while reinforcing NW swell will start to arrive
by early Thu, keeping seas rough. Additional NW swell will keep 
moving in through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. 
Looking ahead, merging NW and SE swell id likely to produce 8 to
9 ft seas close to the equator by the end of the week into the 
weekend, possibly lingering into early next week.