Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
872 AXNT20 KNHC 040401 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A sharp trough is analyzed this evening from 26N65W to 22N68W. This development is associated with an upper trough reaching from 32N70W through central Florida. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data showed fresh to strong NE to E winds between the trough and 1027 mb high pressure over the western Atlantic near 37N65W. This pattern is supporting a weak shear line along 25N. Concurrent altimeter data showed 8-11 ft seas between the Bahamas and Bermuda. As the low develops through Wed, the pressure gradient is expected to yield near-gale to gale-force NE to E winds beginning Wed afternoon, roughly over the waters from 29N to 31N between 63W and 69W. Seas are expected to build to 10-16 ft (3-5 m) with these winds through Thu as the low pressure drifts east- northeastward. The low pressure could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week as it continues to shift slowly E-NE across the sub-tropical Atlantic. Gale-force winds may continue across northern portions of this expected broad low pressure into late Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing over the northwestern Caribbean will interact with enhanced low- level moisture associated with broad cyclonic flow over the western Caribbean during the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation developing across Central America, northern South America, as well as Jamaica tonight through Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across southern and western portions of Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, with the bulk of precipitation occurring today through Thursday. Heavy rainfall will lead to possible life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic from coast of Sierra Leone near 11N14.5W, and continues southwestward to 08N20W to 06N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N25N to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 10N between 20W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad trough extends from the northeast Gulf to the central Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas to 4 ft are active across the Florida Big Bend area between the trough and 1027 mb high pressure off Virginia. Light to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, a cold front is entering the NW Gulf and will continue moving across the NW Gulf through Wed, then weaken and dissipate Wed night. Moderate northwest to north winds are expected west of the front. Another cold front is expected to move across the Gulf waters Fri through Sun night. Fresh to strong north winds will develop west of the front and west of 93W Sat and Sun, with moderate north to northeast winds elsewhere behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep-layer troughing across the northwestern Caribbean supports scattered moderate to strong convection from 10N to 18N between 70W and 82W. A broad 1009 mb low pressure area is centered over the southwest Caribbean near 12N82W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E winds over the eastern Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas, and light breezes over the western Caribbean with 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the area is supporting moderate trade winds, along with moderate seas, over the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are over the western Caribbean. The pressure gradient will further loosen across the area by midweek. This will diminish the moderate trades across the central and eastern Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. An upper trough reaches from 32N70W through central Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near 31N67W, southwest of Bermuda, associated with the upper trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active over the eastern Straits of Florida into the northern Bahamas. Scatterometer data and buoy observations confirm fresh to strong winds north of a shear line along 25N. Altimeter data indicates rough seas with these winds. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 1015 mb low pressure near 29N36W to 25N55W. Fresh winds and 6-8 ft combined seas are evident north of this frontal boundary. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, broad low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary southwest of Bermuda, roughly from 27N to 28N through Wed, and track slowly east-northeastward during the rest of the week and the weekend. A broad zone of strong to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking near 16 ft, will develop north of the low pressure and expand eastward Wed through Sun, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N. The gale-force winds will likely be north of 29N from Wed afternoon through Sat night. A weakening cold front will move across the waters between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night, then dissipate Sat and Sat night.