Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
669 AXNT20 KNHC 032302 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Satellite imagery this evening suggests that an area of low pressure is beginning to develop in the vicinity of 27N67W, along an old frontal boundary that extends from 25.5N60W to 27N66W and through the central Bahamas. A very tight pressure gradient is developing between the low pressure and 1030 mb high pressure to its north near 38N67W. As the low develops tonight through Wed, the pressure gradient is expected to yield near-gale to gale-force NE to E winds beginning Wed afternoon, roughly over the waters from 29N to 31N between 63W and 69W. Seas are expected to build to 10-16 ft (3-5 m) with these winds through Thu as the low pressure drifts east- northeastward. The low pressure could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week as it continues to shift slowly E-NE across the sub-tropical Atlantic. Gale-force winds may continue across northern portions of this expected broad low pressure into late Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing over the northwestern Caribbean will interact with enhanced low- level moisture associated with broad cyclonic flow over the western Caribbean during the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation developing across Central America, northern South America, as well as Jamaica tonight through Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across southern and western portions of Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, with the bulk of precipitation occurring today through Thursday. Heavy rainfall will lead to possible life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic from coast of Sierra Leone near 09.5N13.5W, and continues southwestward to 06N19W to 06N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N29N to 11N59W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring E of 30W between 04N and 08N, and along and within 200 nm N of the ITCZ between 34W and 59W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The interaction between strong high pressure over the eastern United States and a trough over the northeastern Gulf is maintaining fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4-6 ft over the NE Gulf from offshore Tampa Bay to near Mobile Bay. Gentle to moderate south to southeast winds and slight seas are elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing across the coastal waters of west-central and southwest Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also moving into the SE Texas and SW Louisiana coastal waters, just ahead of a cold front still inland there and an upper-level trough and moving across the central US. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds over the NE Gulf will shift north of the area tonight. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight through Wed, then weaken and dissipate Wed night. Moderate northwest to north winds are expected west of the front. Another cold front is expected to move across the Gulf waters Fri through Sun night. Fresh to strong N winds will develop west of the front and west of 93W Sat and Sun, with moderate north to northeast winds elsewhere behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep-layer troughing across the northwestern Caribbean supports scattered moderate to strong convection from 12N to 18N between 74W and 84W. Scattered convection earlier this afternoon N of 20N and across large portions of Cuba has diminished in intensity this evening. In the SW Caribbean, broad cyclonic winds prevail W of 76W and extend to near 20N. Elsewhere, the modest pressure gradient across the central and eastern basin supports only moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail elsewhere across NW portions. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds, along with moderate seas, over the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are over the western Caribbean. The pressure gradient will further loosen across the area by midweek as low pressure develops across the Atlantic S of Bermuda. This will diminish the moderate trades across the central and eastern Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. A frontal boundary is analyzed from a 1014 mb low near 31.5N35W to 27.5N40W to 25.5N60W, where it then transitions to a shear line that extends westward through the central Bahamas and to the Florida Keys. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of 22N between 50W and 68W. Winds quickly increase from gentle to moderate trades S of the front and shear line to fresh to strong NE to E winds north of these features, due to strong high pressure to the north. Seas of 8-11 ft are seen N of the front and shear line between 58W and 77W, with 5-8 ft seas in NE swell south of these features. Further to the east and north of the front, seas are 7 to 10 ft east of 50W. The remainder of the Atlantic is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft in N to NE swell. For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure is centered north of Bermuda and extends a ridge W to E along 38N. Broad low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary southwest of Bermuda, roughly from 27N to 28N, tonight through Wed, and track slowly east-northeastward during the rest of the week and into the weekend. A broad zone of strong to gale- force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking near 16 ft, will develop north of the low pressure and expand eastward Wed through Sat, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N. The gale- force winds will likely be north of 29N from Wed afternoon through Sat night. A weakening cold front will move across the waters between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night, then dissipate Sat and Sat night.