Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
572 AXNT20 KNHC 031713 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Nov 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Broad low pressure is expected to develop tonight along an old frontal boundary that extends from 25N60W to the central Bahamas, near 26N between 65W and 70W. A very tight pressure gradient between the low pressure and strong high pressure to its north is expected to induce near-gale to gale-force northeast to east winds beginning Wed afternoon, roughly over the waters from 29N to 31N between 63W and 69W. Seas are expected to build to 10-16 ft (3-5 m) with these winds through Thu as the low pressure drifts east-northeastward. The low pressure could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing over the western Caribbean will interact with enhanced low-level moisture and onshore flow over the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation developing across Central America, northern South America, as well as Jamaica starting today and lasting through Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across southern and western portions of Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, with the bulk of precipitation occurring today through Thursday. Heavy rainfall will raise concerns for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather services and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic from coast of Guinea near 11N15W, and continues southwestward to 06N21W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N61W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring E of 20W between 03N and 14N. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are also occurring along and within 200 nm N of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The interaction between strong high pressure over the eastern United States and a trough over the southern and eastern Gulf is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to east winds and seas of 4-6 ft over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate southeast to east winds and slight seas are elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing along the eastern end of a surface trough in the Gulf, while more scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring offshore south-central Louisiana as an upper-level trough moves across the central US. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds over the NE Gulf will shift north of the area today. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight through Wed, then weaken and dissipate Wed night. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are expected west of the front. Another cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf waters Fri through Sat night, followed by moderate to fresh northeast winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep-layer troughing in the western Caribbean supports scattered moderate to strong convection N of 15N between 74W and 83W. In the SW Caribbean, the influences from a surface trough and the East Pacific monsoon trough are combining to support scattered moderate convection S of 14N and W of 80W. Elsewhere, the pressure difference between surface ridging across the Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia supports moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas across much of the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the area is supporting moderate trade winds, along with moderate seas, over the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are over the western Caribbean. The pressure gradient will further loosen across the area by midweek. This will diminish the moderate trades across the central and eastern Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. A frontal boundary is analyzed from a 1016 mb low near 31N36W to 28N39W to 26N60W, where it then transitions to a shear line that extends westward through the central Bahamas and to the SE FL coast. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of 22N between 55W and 66W. Winds quickly increase from gentle to moderate trades S of the front and shear line to fresh to strong speeds N of these features. Seas of 8-11 ft are seen N of the front and shear line as well, with 5-8 ft seas S of these features. The remainder of the Atlantic is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker trade winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, an old frontal boundary extends from near 26N55W westward to 26N60W, then becomes a shear line to 27N70W and to the central Bahamas near 25N78W. Strong high pressure is centered north of Bermuda. The pressure gradient between these features will support widespread fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough seas to 11 ft north of the frontal boundary and shear line west of about 60W today. Broad low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary southwest of Bermuda, roughly from 27N to 28N, tonight through Wed, and track slowly east- northeastward during the rest of the week. A broad zone of strong to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking near 16 ft, will develop north of the low pressure and expand eastward Wed through Fri, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N. The gale- force winds will likely be north of 29N from Wed afternoon through early Fri. A weakening cold front will move across the waters between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night, then dissipate Sat and Sat night.