Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

518
AXPZ20 KNHC 031511
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Nov 3 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N70W to low pres near
08.5N89.5W 1009 mb to 05.5N94W to 05.5N127W to low pres near 
08.5N136W 1008 mb to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered to locally
numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 01N to 
10.5N E of 100W, and from 02S to 11N between between 104W and 
140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate to fresh N-NW winds continue through the full length of
the Gulf of California this morning, and extend to offshore of
Cabo Corrientes, as high pressure is building toward the region,
ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas in the gulf are 2 to 4 
ft north portions and 4 to 6 ft across the southern half to
offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Moderate N-NW to N winds prevail
elsewhere across the Baja offshore waters, with fresh winds near
the coast of Baja Sur. New NW swell is entering the regional
waters, building seas to 6 to 8 ft across the Baja Norte waters
and 5 to 6 ft across the Baja Sur waters. Elsewhere, across the 
Mexican offshore waters, gentle NW to N winds prevail, with 
moderate seas in SW swell.
For the forecast, high pressure W of Baja California will 
support fresh NW winds over the Gulf of California today and 
offshore Baja California through Wed night. Large NW swell will 
build across the regional waters today and tonight, impacting 
the Baja waters through Thu. The next pulse of large NW swell 
will reach the Baja waters beginning Thu night. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Low pressure of 1009 mb has formed along the monsoon trough near
08.5N89.5W. A broad zone of moderate to fresh S to SW winds has
developed from the equator to the trough E of 94W, and is
producing scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong 
convection from 01N to 10.5N E of 100W, and is impacting the
near shore waters from Papagayo to coastal Colombia. Seas across
the area are generally 5 to 8 ft in SW swell, and locally higher
near thunderstorms. Moderate or weaker winds are north of the
monsoon trough, with seas of 5 to 7 ft, highest downstream of
Papagayo.
For the forecast, the low pressure along the monsoon trough will
gradually drift northward and weaken through the end of the week,
with associated winds and seas slowly abating. Active showers 
and thunderstorms are expected through Wed.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A stalling cold front extends from 30N131W to 26.5N140W. Ahead 
of it, a weak 1021 mb high is centered near 28N128W. Behind the 
front, moderate N to NE winds are present. S of the high, 
extending to the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh trades
prevail. Along the monsoon trough at 08.5N136W, a 1008 mb low 
center is producing fresh E winds in its northern semicircle,
extending to 20N, and scattered thunderstorms. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle winds prevail. Large NW swell is propagating into the 
region, with seas of 10 to 13 ft now N of the front, and seas to
8 ft and higher now extending south to 15N and W of 128W. 
Elsewhere, moderate seas in mixed NW and SW swell prevail.
For the forecast, the front will become fully stationary today
then dissipate tonight. The associated NW swell will continue 
spreading through the region, bringing rough to very rough seas 
N of 10N and W of 115W through mid-week, before being reinforced 
by new swell starting Thu. Environmental conditions appear 
generally favorable for gradual development of the aforementioned
low pressure near 08.5N136W, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the middle to latter portions of this week as it 
moves westward to west-northwestward around 10 kt, out of the 
Eastern Pacific basin, and into the Central Pacific basin W of
140W. There is a low chance of tropical formation of this system
over the next 48 hours and high chance over the next 7 days. 
Looking ahead, on Fri and Sat combined NW and SE swell may 
produce 8-9 ft seas close to the equator.