Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
489 AXNT20 KNHC 031144 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Nov 03 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Broad low pressure is expected to develop along an old frontal boundary that extends from 26N55W to the central Bahamas starting Tue night, near 26N between 65W and 70W. A very tight pressure gradient between the low pressure and strong high pressure to its north is expected to induce near gale to gale-force northeast to east winds beginning Wed afternoon, roughly over the waters from 29N to 31N between 63W and 69W. Seas are expected to build to 10 to 16 ft (3 to 5 m) with these winds through Thu as the low pressure drifts east-northeastward. The low pressure could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic from coast of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, and continues southwestward to 07N21W and to 09N35W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N44W and to the coast of Guyana near 06.5N57.5W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough and the ITCZ between 29W and 40W and also between 45W-52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The interaction between strong high pressure over the eastern United States and relatively lower pressure related to a trough over the eastern Gulf is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to east winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are elsewhere, except for gentle to moderate southeast winds west of about 92W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist over the Straits of Florida and southeastern Gulf as a surface trough is nearby, and while a mid to upper level trough continues over that same general area of the Gulf. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the NE Gulf will gradually shift northward and inland through this evening. A cold front is forecast to reach along the Texas coast late this afternoon, and move out over the NW Gulf tonight through Wed, followed briefly by moderate to fresh northwest to north winds. The front will then weaken and dissipate Wed night. Another cold front is expected to slowly move into the NW Gulf waters Fri through Sat night, followed by moderate to fresh northeast winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid to upper-level trough over the northwestern Caribbean is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms between 75W and 83W. High pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate trades along with seas of 3 to 6 ft seas across the central eastern Caribbean, except for fresh trades south of 15N between 68W and 72W. Overnight Ascat scatterometer data indicates gentle trades over the western portion of the basin. Seas are 1 to 3 ft with these trades. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across the central and eastern Caribbean will continue today. The pressure gradient across the region will then relax Tue night through Sat as broad low pressure forms along the trough to the SW of Bermuda and shifts east-northeastward throughout the week, leading to overall lighter winds and diminishing seas across the Caribbean basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a recently issued Gale Warning for a portion of the western Atlantic. A 1016 mb low is over the far northeast part of the discussion area near 31N36W. A cold front extends from the low to near 29N38W, then transitions to a stationary front to 28N45W to 27N50W and to 26N60W, where it transitions to a shear line to 27N70W and to the central Bahamas near 25N78W. A tight pressure gradient between the stationary front/shear line and strong high pressure of 1030 mb centered north of Bermuda at 38N63W is sustaining widespread fresh to strong northeast to east winds north of the front and shear line. Seas with these winds are 8-11 ft Over the deep tropics, a trough is near 50W from 14N to 22N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are east of the trough from 17N to 20N between 46W and 49W. In the far eastern Atlantic, a trough, remnants of a former frontal system, is analyzed from near 29.5N32W to 27N24W, curving northeastward through the Canary Islands and to near 30N12.5W. No significant convection is occurring with this feature. Gentle to moderate trades along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are present are over the eastern Atlantic south of the above mentioned cold and stationary front, with the exception of mostly fresh trades south of 20N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas over these waters are 4 to 6 ft per latest altimeter satellite data, and observations from a few Sofar Spotter buoys over these same waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned fresh to strong northeast to east winds north of the stationary front and shear line will continue through today west of about 60W along with seas peaking to around 11 ft. Broad low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary southwest of Bermuda, roughly from 27N to 28N, tonight through Wed, and track slowly east- northeastward during the rest of the week. A broad zone of strong to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 16 ft, will develop north of the low pressure and expand eastward Wed through Fri, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N. The gale- force winds will likely be north of 29N from Wed afternoon through Thu evening. A weakening cold front will slowly move across the waters between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night, dissipating Sat and Sat night.