Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

188
AXPZ20 KNHC 030839
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Nov 3 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N121W to beyond 
09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
occurring from 02N to 16N between 123W and 140W and south of 11N
east of 100W. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh NW winds are present in the Gulf of California, where high
pressure is building toward the region. Seas in the gulf are 3 
to 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, with moderate 
seas. 
For the forecast, high pressure over the SW United States will 
support fresh NW winds over the Gulf of California today and 
offshore Baja California through Wed night. Large, long- period 
NW swell will impact the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro tonight
through Thu. New large NW swell will reach the same waters 
beginning Thu night. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
South of the monsoon trough, S to SW winds have increased to
moderate to locally fresh W of 80W. Moderate gap winds continue
in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds prevail.
Moderate seas dominate the region. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is occurring south of 11N.
For the forecast, away from scattered showers and thunderstorms,
quiescent winds and seas will prevail through the week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A stalling cold front extends from 30N133W to 26N139W. Ahead of 
it, a weak 1021 mb high is centered near 29N126W. Behind the 
front, moderate N winds are present. S of the high, extending to 
the monsoon trough, moderate trades prevail. Along the monsoon 
trough at 09N134W, a 1010 mb low center is producing fresh E 
winds in its northern semicircle, along with scattered
thunderstorms. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Large 
NW swell is propagating into the region, with rough seas now 
extending south to 15N and E of 127W. Seas near 30N140W are 
peaking near 13 ft. Elsewhere, moderate seas prevail. 
For the forecast, the front will become fully stationary today
then dissipate tonight. The associated NW swell will continue 
spreading into the region, bringing rough to very rough seas N of
10N and W of 115W through mid-week, before being reinforced by 
new swell starting Thu. Environmental conditions appear 
generally favorable for gradual development of the aforementioned
low pressure, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the middle to latter portions of this week as it moves westward 
to west- northwestward around 10 kt, out of the Eastern Pacific
basin and into the Central Pacific basin. There is a low chance 
of tropical formation of this system over the next 48 hours and 
high chance over the next 7 days. Looking ahead, on Fri and Sat 
combined NW and SE swell may produce 8-9 ft seas close to the 
equator.