Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
212 AXNT20 KNHC 030426 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Nov 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Atlantic Gale Warning: Broad low pressure is expected to develop along a trough, southwest of Bermuda, roughly from 27N to 28N, Tue night through Wed, and track slowly east-northeastward throughout the rest of the week. A broad zone of strong to gale- force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 16 ft, will develop north of the low pressure and expand eastward Wed through Fri, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N. The gale-force winds are likely north of 29N from Wed afternoon through Thu evening. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from coastal Senegal near 13N16W to 10N20W to 08N30W. The ITCZ starts at 08N30W and extends to 08N58W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N-13N east of 23W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist over the Straits of Florida, associated with an upper low over the southeast Gulf. The gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and troughing over Florida is supporting fresh E winds and 5-7 ft seas across the northeast Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds persist elsewhere, except for SE winds over the far northwest Gulf. For the forecast, a cold front will reach along the Texas coast late Tue afternoon, and move out over the NW Gulf Tue night through Wed, followed briefly by moderate to fresh northwest to north winds. The front will then weaken and dissipate Wed night. Another cold front is expected to slowly move into the NW Gulf waters Fri through Sat night, followed by moderate to fresh northeast winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper trough over the northwest Caribbean is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms between 75W and 83W. High pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate E winds and 3-5 ft seas across the eastern Caribbean, except for fresh winds off northeast Caribbean. Gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas are noted over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across the central and eastern Caribbean will persist through Tue. The pressure gradient across the region will then relax Tue night through Sat as broad low pressure forms along the trough to the SW of Bermuda and shifts east-northeastward throughout the week, leading to overall weaker winds and diminishing seas across the Caribbean basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N37W to 26N50W to 25N65W, where that transitions to a shear line to 24N80W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and 8-11 ft seas continue north of the front and shearline. Over the deep tropics, a few thunderstorms are active along a trough extending along 48W from 14N to 20N. Farther east, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active south of the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft persist elsewhere across the North Atlantic south of 31N. For the forecast west of 55W, a lingering frontal trough meanders from near 26N55W westward and through the central Bahamas along 25N. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. is building eastward across the Atlantic waters north of the trough. The resulting pressure gradient will maintain widespread fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough seas to 11 ft north of the trough and west of 60W through Tue. Broad low pressure is expected to develop along the trough, southwest of Bermuda, roughly from 27N to 28N, Tue night through Wed, and track slowly east-northeastward throughout the rest of the week. A broad zone of strong to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 16 ft, will develop north of the low pressure and expand eastward Wed through Fri, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N. The gale-force winds are likely north of 29N from Wed afternoon through Thu evening. A weakening cold front will slowly move across the waters between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night, dissipating Sat and Sat night.