Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

247
AXPZ20 KNHC 030300
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Nov 3 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N131W to 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring 
from 03N-16N between 128W-137W and south of 10N east of 100W. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh N gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
with seas to 7 ft. Fresh NW winds have also developed in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, where high pressure is building toward the
region. Seas in the gulf are 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, winds are 
moderate or weaker, with moderate seas. 
For the forecast, high pressure over the SW United States will 
support fresh NW winds over the Gulf of California through Tue 
and offshore Baja California through Wed night. Large, long-
period NW swell will impact the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro 
Tue night through Thu. New large NW swell will reach the same 
waters beginning Fri. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh NE winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region 
with seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with 
seas 5-7 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
occurring south of 10N east of 100W. 
For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will diminish to moderate tonight. Elsewhere, 
winds and seas are quiescent. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue for at least the next two days over all forecast 
waters from Nicaragua southward. 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A cold front extends from 30N135W to 27N140W. Ahead of it, a weak
and weakening 1021 mb high is centered near 29N126W. Behind the
front, moderate N winds are present. S of the high, extending to
the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate trades prevail. Along the
monsoon trough at 09N132W, a 1011 mb low center is producing
fresh E winds in its northern semicircle. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds prevail. Large NW swell is propagating into the
region, with rough seas now extending NW of a line from 30N129W
to 20N140W. Seas near 30N140W are peaking near 12 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate seas prevail. 
For the forecast, the cold front will move southeast through Tue
then dissipate Tue night. The associated NW swell will continue
spreading into the region, bringing rough to very rough seas N 
of 10N and W of 115W through mid-week, before being reinforced by
new swell starting Thu. Environmental conditions appear 
generally favorable for gradual development of the aforementioned
low pressure system in the western basin along the monsoon 
trough, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
middle to latter portions of this week as it moves westward to 
west- northwestward around 10 to 15 mph over the Central Pacific 
basin. There is a low chance of tropical formation of this system
over the next 48 hours and high chance over the next 7 days. 
Looking ahead, on Fri and Sat combined NW and SE swell should 
produce 8-9 ft seas close to the equator.